Reply To: Binah-Shidduch Issue

az: “First the community needs to be educated as to what the problem is (age gap created by our present system) Then we can focus on solutions”

Great!!! let’s review some posts from a previous thread of yours to determine if the “age gap” is TRULY the problem.

the Avi Chai survey shows 12% growth over 5 years in Orthodox dayschools. This translates to only about 2% a year not 3-4%. if you count all Orthodox schools or 1% if you count Yeshiva and half of centrist. Even 2% * 3year age difference equals 6%, minus 5% more boys born leaves us only 1% more girls then boys. Not even taking into account the dropout gap. Clearly the “age gap” is NOT a significant factor in the shidduch crisis.

if you assume that half of the 10% decline in “centrist orthodox” was students who became more “yeshiveshe” and transferred to “yeshiva” schools you are left with only 9% growth. Divided by 5 years averages 1.8% growth.

Of course 7% among MO is a problem, but the fact that it exists disproves your theory. With a smaller growth rate and the same 5% more males born they have also closed the age gap to the 1.5% as you recommend. Based on your theory we should be seeing a surplus of MO boys, but instead they also have more single girls then boys. Tiyuvta!!!

MO have a growth rate of 1.3% per year. Their age gap is 1-2 years, for arguments sake say 2%. That gives a total of 2.6% “gap” which does not even overcome the 5% birth gap and should result in 2.4% BOYS unmarried. The facts on the ground contradict this!!!

after seeing the Avi Chai survey inside it is clear that the “age gap” can not account for more then 1% unmarried, which is insignificant