AZ, I didnt talk to shadchanim – I was looking around at the married couples I know in a +/- 5 year range. They are mostly all within 2 years of each other. That doesn’t mean there isn’t a gluttony of older single women, just that IMHO, the age gap isn’t whats the driving force.
Also, you didn’t read my post very carefully. I never claimed that there ARE more girls born than boys – it was a question. I know what the birth rates are, but IIRC, the 20-30 age range has an equal number of both genders for causcasians (and by the mid 30s, women outnumber men). I was wondering if amongst orthodox Jews the birth rate of girls may be higher. You didn’t refute this because you didn’t bring any proof! I don’t know if a study has been done with this…
In addition, the study you quote also says that there are 6% of the Orthodox population that goes OTD. If the population is growing at a rate of 4%, but losing 6% a year (assuming they are all boys, since boys have a much higher rate of going OTD from what it seems). That means if you have 100 boys and 100 girls, and you lose 6 boys off the derech, you are left with 94 boys and 100 girls. So, you aren’t increasing the population at the same rate! Now, the 4% growth on the 94 boys and 100 girls leads to 97.75 boys and 104 girls the next year. The next year will end up with 95.57 boys and 108.15 girls, with the rate of women growing exponentially.
Basically the math is that you take your first numbers (100 boys and 100 girls). Reduce the male population by 6% (multiply by 0.94) and then increase the boys and girls by 4% (multiply by 1.04). The girls grow exponentially. Don’t like the 6% and 0% of the off the derech split? 5%/1% works, 4%/2% works….
There could be a math mistake in my assumptions, but I don’t think so. And if thats the case, you would need a HUGE age gap between women and men (meaning women many years older) to bridge the gap.
For the record, the rate of male births is DECLINING worldwide. Yes, there are more boys being born, but they outnumber the female births less and less. And they are less likely to survive childhood.