Who says Netanyahu won? Herzog may have an easier time prong together a coalition than him. If anything, Kachlon won, because the next government comes down to him. Bibi needs the chareidim and Lieberman, (or Lapid, Kachlon, and Lieberman), but Herzog doesn’t.
Herzog would need Lapid and Kahlon, not to mention the hareidim and the Arabs. It would be a lot trickier. All Netanyahu has to do inconvince the “right” to stop trying to draft the hareidm.