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While current proposals would not rule out prison, they include fines (to be paid by penniless yeshiva boys from kollel families???) and monetary penalties (which would bankrupt be paid from private contribution) and loss of both civil rights (right to travel abroad) and access to the welfare state (child allowances – for 18-21 year olds, or for life? – what about health care which in Israel comes from the government). While an extreme effort to “crack down” on yeshivos could force the hareidim into alliance with the Arabs, it won’t happen since Israeli politics will cut back on the plans to enforce conscription with serious punitive sanctions.
But this is highly unlikely. While Lapid’s supporters would cheer punitive sanctions, even they will have second thoughts when Israeli courts and international human rights groups question (to put it mildly) policies that discriminate against a religious minority. The left in Israel also includes both many Arabs and Jewish left-wing people who don’t want to be in the army, and they will be concerned that they will be targetted as well. If all they do is offer to treat Hareidim like they do Arabs, that won’t be enough to “break” anyone, but if they treat them worse than Arabs or worse than secular Jews who evade army service it will create a legal and political backlash.
Politically, Likud will be very concerned that if they push the Hareidim too hard, they will discover they are really comfortable befriendly the socialists and the Arabs – and if the two big issues are support for a welfare state (or “entitlements” as we in the USA call them) and opposition to compulsory military service, an Arab-Haredi-Labor coalition becomes possible. The presence of the Hareidim in the coalition would be “figleaf” for Arab involvement (“what, our coalition isn’t Jewish enough – it includes Shas, Agudah and the yeshivos?”). For over a generation the Israeli political system has been dominated by the “right” (the old Herut and Liberalim, and breakaways such as Olmert, Sharon and Livni). If the Hareidim move to the “left”, there will be 50-50 split between right and left — and Netanyahu doesn’t want that to happen. Netanyahu is also vulnerable since Lapid and Bennett in general oppose the welfare state, and Likud has a large working class Sefardi segment that might switch to Shas or even Labor if Likud cracks down on entitlements for the poor.
Bayit Yehudi is also in a bind.Bennett is having a hard time claiming to be a religious party when he is the one attacking the yeshivos, and Likud is protecting the yeshivas – from Bennett. Feiglin is Bayit Yehudi’s chief rival, and proposed ending conscription to solve the problem. And to make it worse, if the Hareidi move to the left, it will endanger political support for the settlements – meaning Likud, not Bayit Yehudi, will be the party doing the most to support the settlements. Thus one should expect Bayit Yehudi to tone down its anti-hareidi positions and work for mitigation of the damages to the Torah world.
The the bottom line is they will probably cut off some or even all funding for yeshivos, or perhaps tie such funding to army service (subsidize veterans rather than 18 year olds), but nothing worse. They might end up abolishing conscription, which would actually empty out the yeshivos as most of the older students want to be baal ha-battim (and they often work “under the table”), and ending conscription will free them to get real jobs – and at the same time, ending conscription will force the army to finally make a good faith effort to respect halacha since they will need to in order to get recruits.
So while there will be a lot of yelling, it isn’t the end of the world. And in the end, Gam Zeh Le-Tovah.
Thank you for a very intelligent post
Very interesting and thoughtful analysis. Especially summed up with the very end paragraph.
If they push the Hareidim too hard hundreds of thouands of them will emigrate to Europe (most of Ashkenazim are eligible for EU passports) and the US, rather than serving in the army and asimilating into the hiloni mainstream,….and that’s the worst case scenario for the secular government (losing the demographic war against the arabs).
ben david,
not true, they would try the same thing with the arabs hoping to get rid of them too
@coffee addict
The Arabs if they had the opportunity to emigrate to the West, they would have done it long time ago, without waiting for harassment or severe persecution from the Israeli government. Besides Israel, would never let a large number of Muslim Arabs into the army.
As to Frum yidden in EY, Rav Ovadia Yosef has already warned that there will be a mass exodus if IDF drafts yeshiva students.
akuperma-good post.
A couple points: The charedi conscription issue is viewed by many as simply monetary i.e. how severely will they fine and how many benefits will they take away, but not viewed in the context of will charedim actually go to the army. With Ashkenazi Israelis this is probably the case for the most part.
The Sefardi leadership is genuinely scared though. Many of their bachurim come from traditional, irreligious homes. The fear is that while they already suffer lack of support from their families, if you add to that the pressure of the state and the monetary losses, these boys might feel that they have no choice but to enlist. Speak to the sefardi rabbanim in Israel. They see this as an existential threat.
Unfortunately, if the above scenario plays out c”v, the government will have done quite a job.
Sure the Charedim can Emigrate to Belz, Ukraine ; Brest (Brisk) , Beleraus ; or Vilinius (Vilna) Lithuania , they will be treated better than than Israel
^^
Those who can get a Polish, Romanian, Hungarian or German passport….can settle in London, Manchester or Antwerps where many Charedim live. The rest can seek asylum in Canada and the US (relatively easy if they’re persecuted for religious reasons).
Ukraine and Belraus are not in the EU , Lithuania is
Its harder to get Religious asylum in the us than you think, especially from a friendly ally. I cant speak for Canada though
There are two big issues that I see, that nobody seems to want to address:
1) As charedim become a larger and larger part of Israeli society, they need to step up to the plate and take responsibility for protecting that society. That doesn’t have to involve a draft, but it does mean that SOME charedim will need to serve in the IDF, and at least SOME charedim will need to leave the yeshiva and get careers, which will require modern education. The charedi world will also have to more accept that non-charedi Orthodox rabbis can be relied upon in places like the IDF. For instance, the Orthodox rabbis in the IDF know the kashrut laws, and they have extensively researched the situations that justify chilul Shabat in the military and they can be relied upon to pasken even for charedim.
2) As charedim become a larger and larger part of Israeli society, the rest of Israeli society needs to accept that charedim are here to stay and that continuing to maintain much of that society as charedi-unfriendly is counterproductive. For example, there is no reason why charedi soldiers should be punished for quietly excusing themselves from performances of female vocalists. (I write that as someone whose own non-charedi rav is quite meikel on kol ishah.) And there is no reason why the IDF should not follow its own rabbis, who are committed Orthodox Zionists and are as upset about the unnecessary chilul Shabat as anyone commenting here.
I could list many other examples, but I think my point is clear.
I would add that the level of vitriol between charedi and non-charedi politicians is completely unacceptable — on both sides. It is time to turn down the volume. We are all one people. And the Torah of a dati rabbi and the Torah of a charedi rabbi is the same Torah even when they pasken differently in a particular circumstance.
^^
I think Germany offers residency cards to Jews from Non-EU Eastern-Europe. However I heard that Israel complained to Merkel about the policy, since many Russians went back to Russia, destroyed their Israeli passport,…and applied for immigrant visas to Germany….so I’m not sure it’s still in effect.
In Canada if they accepted the request of an extreme group like Lev Tahor,….I doubt they will refuse protection to normal people who are really persecuted for religious reasons.
“In Canada if they accepted the request of an extreme group like Lev Tahor”
IIRC the Lev Tahor people only got temporary visas, not immigrant visas.
“The Sefardi leadership”
9 out of 11 current Shas MKs served in the IDF.
The charedi world will also have to more accept that non-charedi Orthodox rabbis can be relied upon in places like the IDF.
That belongs in the next paragraph, restated as follows: “Israeli society will have to accept that charedi soldiers will not accept the p’sakim of non chareidi rabbis in places such as the IDF.”
I would add that the level of vitriol between charedi and non-charedi politicians is completely unacceptable — on both sides.
That’s true for all Israeli politics, it’s not limited to charedi/non-charedi issues. Also, it means less in that culture than it would in American culture.
A wise saying, He who controls the Kings Treasury Controls the King.
As the money is taken the charedim must accept that it will come with more and more conditions, If they dont like the conditions they will starve and I really doubt any country will take people who want to come for welfare. They want people who will work and pay taxes. I doubt the German government really cares about torah learning
charlie hall, not sure why you assumed by sefardi leadership I meant sefardi politicians. Rav Shalom Cohen, probably the representative of sefardi Roshei Yeshivah today, echoed my exact sentiments at a meeting prior to the march r”c adar.
“why you assumed by sefardi leadership I meant sefardi politicians”
The Sefardi rabbis control the Shas party and decide whom the MKs will be.
“I really doubt any country will take people who want to come for welfare”
In the US, if the visa grantor thinks you will likely end up on welfare, you won’t get a visa. You could come illegally, of course, or come as a legal visitor and overstay the expiration of the visa.
A better, legal, way is to enroll in a degree-granting institution. Anyone without a criminal record from anywhere in the world can do that and come here on a student visa. Many yeshivot have started granting degrees; they would just need to have a visa office to process the paperwork. But the student’s ability to earn income would be severely limited.
“Israeli society will have to accept that charedi soldiers will not accept the p’sakim of non chareidi rabbis in places such as the IDF.”
Then the charedi soldiers will have to suffer courts martial when they disobey an order. The halachah is that when you become part of a new community you abide by the rabbis of that community. How many charedi rabbis are there in the IDF?
The idea that non-charedi rabbis are not competent to pasken shilahs is one of the most vicious slanders around. The charedim who push that nonsense should stop wondering why the datim are doing nothing to help stop the budget cuts or to prevent conscription.
Then the charedi soldiers will have to suffer courts martial when they disobey an order.
Are you trying to propose a system which will work peacefuly, or not?
The halachah is that when you become part of a new community you abide by the rabbis of that community. How many charedi rabbis are there in the IDF?
That’s probably not relevant here, but even if it were, realistically, it’s not going to happen, so if you want a realistic proposal, the government will have to give in on this.
The idea that non-charedi rabbis are not competent to pasken shilahs is one of the most vicious slanders around.
Maybe, maybe not. Not all charedi rabbis are competent to answer shailos either,but you’re trying to force people to accept rabbis based on government appointments, and they shouldn’t and won’t.
You are also ignoring the fact that the validity of the missions sometimes undertaken is a matter of major contention between the camps, and affects shailos such as putting people into sakana and chillul Shabbos.
Rav Ovadia also said that those who do not learn should serve in the IDF. Rav Nachman Kahana proposed a simple solution – test them. Those who make the grade will be able to continue learning but will have to devote some time to teaching in an IDF framework. They will also have to say the mi sheberach for the soldiers. their current refusal, along with their refusal to say the prayer for the State, is scandalous, especially as they claim that they are learning for everyone.
As for running away, let’s see who will take them. If someone does, let’s see how they get along with the Islamists and neo-Nazis.
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