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AZ:
We keep assuming the age gap is the problem, and it does make a certain amount of sense. However, I would think we should try to prove it before really taking any drastic measures.
I am aware of your study with girls schools, however, that study really proved nothing.
A. You didn’t study the boys.
B. You didn’t study how many were still part of the same community.
I am aware that such a study will be very difficult, since we don’t have very defined communities, but it seems worth it. If you can actually show that the age gap is the problem, I would be much more ready to make concessions.
So, this thread is the beginning of your push to raise the funds and do the study. We’ll call it the Popa Papers.
I always wondered maybe the actual problem is the the fact that dating is really unnatural and is relatively a new idea. It seems like for thousand’s of years arrange marriages was the way to go.I know thats not how things are really done today and I might be off,but it could be another factor.
I believe you are correct, sam4321. Arranged marriages aren’t as picky as dating marriages are, and they seem to work out better. That is true when you compare the marriages of today’s daters to yesteryears (thousands of years as you said) arranged marriages, or even if you compare the marriages of today’s daters to today’s marriages that were arranged. There are less divorces in the latter of both comparisons. The arranged marriages also seem happier with less “expectations and demands” from each other.
Even moreso, look at the fact that arranged marriages (today and yesteryear) are generally much closer in age than the average age gap between people married via dating.
You’ll notice the age gap issue developed roughly in conjunction with the move from arranged marriages to marriages via dating. And only among the communities that changed to dating. The communities that still continue arranged marriages today do not have the age gap crisis.
So you may have a point that the relatively recent change to dating for marriage instead of arranged marriages (as was done through Jewish history) is the root cause of the age gap crisis. Reversing this may be the solution, if that is attainable.
Pba,
As far as point A, once you’ve proven a certain rate of population growth, it’s not necessary to study the boys, unless you feel the need to disprove the possibility that are are a lot more boys than girls.
As far as point B, you would only need a study to disprove the notion that there are a lot more girls leaving the community.
There are better uses for the money.
I look at it like this. there is basically ONE target boy age 23 lets say. that everyone is looking for. the problem is, the 19 20 21 22 23 yr old girls are all looking for that 23 yr old guy. Thats the numbers problem. so either put the girls in the freezer until they are say, 22 and additionally make the boys go out earlier.
nine pages of hocking, and i just figured it out. simple….
Pba,
Hamotzi meichaveiro…
You’re the one trying to take people’s money.
My point really, though, is that those assumptions are far fetched.
I’m the one trying to take people’s money?
Yes, if you want to invest in a study. Unless you’ll sponsor, in which case, kol hakavod.
you are the one who is unilaterally raising the standard for shadchanus
I have nothing to do with it. Besides, the only way the standards are raised is if the program works. Would it bother you if more older girls are able to get married?
I know dozens of older single guys.
I’m not sure what your point is. I meant more boys than girls at any given age (i.e. more 10 year old boys than girls, more 17 year old boys than girls, etc.)
And I know dozens of people who are no longer part of the community they grew up in.
Not the point; I don’t assume that that’s the case for females on a larger scale than for males; I assume the opposite.
rc: Incorrect, the core problem is NOT that 23 year old boys can marry 19/20/21/22/23 year old girls..
the core problem is simply that there are far more 19 year old girls than 23 year old boys.
THAT is the core problem and that is what is meant by age gap.
Sam: it has nothing to do with arranged marriges. The reason the chassidim don’t have a problem is becaue the boys begin dating 18/19 they also happen to do arranged marriages.
If they began at 18/19 and did shidduch dating the would also not have a problem. If they began at 23 and did arrenged marriages they would have a problem.
IF you suggest that the reason why they date at 18/19 is becasue they do arranged marriages AND you suggest that it is possible to duplicate that in the non chassidic community, BY all means go for. I’ll inevest my energies elsewher, but don’t hold back. give it your best shot.
Daas Yochid: where’s the proof that the population growth is as high as you claim it is? That was never proven to us; just repeated over and over until it is taken as fact. Who says there is such a high population growth from YEAR to YEAR? Until that point is proven, many people will continue to not trust the whole age gap theory. How about it’s a social crises that caused a shidduch crises. In the litvish world, more than in any other group, there is a huge emphasis on the highest bidder and the prettiest girl. The chassidim do things differently in many ways. Who says the fact that they marry the boys younger is why they don’t have a shidduch crises. How about it’s because of how they look for a shidduch in the first place. Of my entire chassidishe class, the poor girls and the fat girls did not get engaged later than the rich or pretty girls. Not so by the litvish. You can have great girls, but they are dirt poor and they are standing around for years. Look at the Bensonhurst community; many great girls with depth and real ben torah material but their fathers are very poor. Do you know how many of them are older and single. You’ll never find that in the chassidishe world. Same with weight. I know of several wonderful, truly wonderful, intelligent, kind, erliche litvish girls who are somewhat overweight and they can’t even get a date. The first question shadchan’s ask is “what size is she”. Once again, you don’t find this in the chassidishe world at all. Fat girls, poor girls, they get married at pretty much the same time the rich or pretty girls do. So who says it’s the age gap problem. How about screwed priorities social problem where litvish boys think they are God’s gift to humanity and if this year’s graduates don’t have enough rich pretty girls, no problem they’ll wait for next year’s.
snjn: because if it’s about priorities then there should be rougthly the same number of older single guys as there are older single girls.
the girls who aren’t pretty etc. and the guys who insist on pretty…
HOWEVER, the guys seem to all be getting married.
Please explain that phenomana….
is it true that guys insist on pretty etc. perhaps. Does that casue the crisis… NO, that simply determines which girls get stuck not how many
(i apologize if i sound like a broken tape recordet, i’ve been repeating this same idea for over four years now….)
or do you really think that in the non chassidishe communites there are roughtly the same number of older single guys as older single girls…
for the purposes of this discussion the term older means they have been dating more than five years. (not that i really think that should be considered older, but simply becuae we need to have a working definition of what we are discussing.
Sam, arranged marriages work when children trust their parents (or whoever is doing the arranging). That is simply not the case today, and maybe for good reason.
The boys who insist on pretty or rich would rather stick around for the next year’s pretty and rich girls than take this years other girls. So the rich and pretty girls are desired by more than one year’s worth of boys. That’s why there are “less” girls for more boys. If boys would still insist on only rich and pretty than closing the age gap would help nothing. They would still rather wait around for next graduating class to choose rich and pretty than take something else. So having boys date younger wouldn’t change anything as long as they still have screwed on priorities. I cannot even print what one shadchan quoted to me from the “great Lakewood boy” she was inquiring about my friend for, of why he needs someone skinny. The girls are taught to look for tochen, and to seek to develop their inner qualities and the boys both look for external and overly value external.
Maybe there’s a reason you have to keep repeating yourself for four years: where’s the proof that the population grows so exponentially from one YEAR to another YEAR. Perhaps there’s a reason so many people are still so skeptical about this theory.
Daas Yochid: where’s the proof that the population growth is as high as you claim it is?
Pba was referring to a study done in girls’ schools which demonstrated that the younger grades are more populated than the older ones. I wasn’t providing proof, i was going along with his assumption.
There are mathematical formulas to determine population growth based on the average number of children per family. You can Google it, just as I have, and I’ve posted my findings in this thread and others, and other posters have as well.
I cnat keep up with all these boards, but,, AZ I am not incorrect. Its what youre saying But COMPOUNDED> There are not enough 23 yr olds?(boys) thats ridiculous. G-d didnt just stop making 23 yr olds. Your svara only works if every 23 yr old was marrying only a 19yr old and then there would still be a problem, add to that my svara which is the pool of 23 yr old boys are being sought after by all those catagories of girls. thats where the problem is it seems pretty simple to me. According to your svara. Who are the 24 yr olds marrying? who are the 22 yr olds marrying (boys) ? they arent all grouped by age. but one thing still holds true, that is a universal target is that 23 yr old guy. TOo many people are after him!!!
another point: there’s this rally cry to get girls to agree to marry working boys. To have them lower their standards, even if those standards are based on an ideal, a holy way of raising their family. Oh, but not all boys are like that so the girls must lower their expectations. Why isn’t their a similar cry to the boys. They want rich, pretty and skinny. Not all girls are like that? No problem, they’ll wait for the next crop of 18 year old girls to choose from. But lower their stupid, shallow, materialistic and totally unjewish standards? No way. After all, a ben torah DESERVES to by supported, DESERVES a beautiful wife so how can they lower their standards. Answer me that one; why is it the girls that have to give up their lofty ideals that are based in holiness because not all boys are that way but the boys, whose ideals are based on gashmius, are not told to be realistic because not all girls are like that. Never mind because they are wrong ideals.
rc,
You’re right that there are 19, 20, 21, 22, and 23 year old girls after the 23 year old boys. But why? Why didn’t the 20, 21, 22, and 23 year old girls all get married? The answer is, because there were more of them (per year) when they were 19 then there were 23 year old boys, because of population growth.
In other words, what you describe is true, but it’s not the cause, it’s the effect.
Answer me that one; why is it the girls that have to give up their lofty ideals that are based in holiness because not all boys are that way but the boys, whose ideals are based on gashmius, are not told to be realistic because not all girls are like that. Never mind because they are wrong ideals.
It’s a sad reality, but the cold, hard truth (b’derech hateva) is that it’s because of supply and demand.
snjn you’re raising valid points. Do you know who is to blame for the arrogance of these boys? MOTHERS. Shadchanim can tell you stories about MOTHERS of boys.
Shadchan: I found a size 2 girl for your son
Mother: I heard this girl was a little rondelette (plumpish) as a child, how do I know she won’t become a size 4 after giving birth?
In addition to skinny and beautiful, the mother requires the girl to have been Valedictorian, have gone to BJJ (ivy league seminary) be multi-talented, organize choirs/dances, and the list goes on and on.
The irony is that when it comes to their daughters, these same mothers are appalled at the boys’ expectations!
Mothers must stop feeding their son’s egos with the wrong values. Boys are raised to believe “Es kimt mich – I deserve”. So first these boys create a shidduch crisis with lots of single girls, and then they create a new crisis with lots of divorcees because these pompous guys make lousy husbands!
End result:
Thousands and thousands of unmarried Jewish females.
snjn:
In your theory that the boys stick around for the next year. Can you imaginge the competition of the boys for those girs. becuae every year there are new boys as well. the guys who stick around etc. would face fierce competiton from al the new boys.
so how is it that after three years of dating the boys are by and large married and many many girls stay single
Please explain that phenomana (unless you don’t believe it to be true).
Snjn: your suggestion about boys looking to be supported, or in other words girls looking for those kinds of boys being at a bigger disadvantage actaully isn’t suppported by the data on the ground. According to that theory, the more yeshivish the commuinity is the worse the problem should be- correct?
well guess what, It’s not true. mMnch on that a bit..
Rc: i said you are incorrect as to the cause. what you descrie is the effect. When after a few years the boys are married and girls (who strated dating at that same time) are still around then we have the crisis rearing it’s head in real time.
I am simply foucsing on the cause becasue understanding that is the key to solving the problem.
or in other words, why didn’t all or almost all the girls get married at 19. Why are some many girls turning 22 and still not married. (and do you really think that 21 year old girls will only marry a 23 year old but not a 24 year old??)
more so, I’d hate to be a 24 or 25 year old guy. I mean the girls ONLY want 23 year olds. My gosh, poor 24/25 year old guy, he can’t buy a date (according to your theory.).
Rc: i apologize, but as i wrote before, is accurate, you are incorrect. It’s true that a 23 year old can date a 19/20/21/22/23 etc, but that’s NOT the cause that’s simply a result.
to solve a problem, you need to get at the cause, without that it’s hopeless.
“phenomana”
phenomenon* singular.
also i missed this bit…who are the rabbonim who signed off on it? i heard that nasi published the list…
AZ: I have several friends in the Bensonhurst community who are really tochendig, are would be the types to have long term torah learning but because their father are dirt poor they are in their mid 20’s and still sitting. So yes, boys go for the hightest bidder most definitely.
AZ: I agree there’s a discrepancy in number of single girls vs. boys but I think it’s because boys will wait for the younger class of girls to choose their trophy so there are many girls left unmarried. I don’t think the population explodes so exponentially from year to year as you claim. Sure younger classes are fuller than older grades. That refers to first grade vs. eight grade. There isn’t a big difference if at all from grade to grade. You claim there is. Have you checked it out? It doesn’t make sense. Trying to close the age gap wouldn’t work as long as boys prefer to wait around for next year’s rich and skinny. They would never agree to take this year’s average looks and average bank account. Telling everyone the only solution is to close the age gap just instills panic because it will never be done so long as this distorted and twisted priorities are accommodated.
AZ: I agree there’s a discrepancy in number of single girls vs. boys but I think it’s because boys will wait for the younger class of girls to choose their trophy
Well, then, those boys would be single, and there should be the same amount of them as there are single girls. You can’t, logically, agree that there’s a discrepancy in numbers but attribute it to choosiness. Every time a boy gets married, he takes a girl with him.
Interesting to hear that you have a few friends….. data shows that in the very yeshivish communites the situation is bad but not as bad as in other communites- go figure…
Snjn: Glad to see you’ve joined the disuccions after four years. Yes it’s been checked out. It’s the reason for the nasi project. It wasn’t started on a whim of some bored people, nor did 70 R”Y sign a letter acknowldging the truism of the age gap concept simply becasue AZ in the YWCR sais so.
Do the rich pretty girls get more attention- certainly! That’s true in all aread of life from kindergarten to 120. Rich connected, popular etc get first dibs. It’s part of being a member of the human race, deal with it. (for the record i am neither rich nor pretty).
Is that the reason why as a whole, girls have a harder time than guys
no no no
never never never
uh uh uh
if all girls where rich and pretty we would have just as many single girls as we have today.
remember my example of musical chairs…
girls are the participants
guys are the chairs.
Rich/pretty they just know how to hang closer to the chairs.
So long as there aren’t enough chairs for the participants it won’t make a dent.
This is the reaso why you won’t see a nasi project raising money so that girls families should have money. If they thought it would make a differenct they would do it.
But they know that it won’t- so they don’t.
Telling everyone we need go the age gap/break the stigma against slightly older girls has been exremely effective and iy”h will continue to be effective.
B”H much progress has been made and there is actually hope that this terrible situation will be solved (going forward).
we are closer to the end than the beginging.
PPA: cute game, wonder how you started with 1000/1000
Guess you completed your study.
Boy was that fast!!!
Unfourtantely in the nimshal i was reffering to it’s more like 2000/2200 with 200 girls each year not having any chairs to pair up with.
You asked about studies, yeah they were done by mathemiticians. It’s been discussed as nasuem in this very forum, so no i won’t re-enter that debate.
Fr the purposes of this forum I will simply work on the notion that there are significantly more children in 9th grade than in 12th grade.
Do you deny/debate/question that statement.
would you like to see the studies?
If yes feel free to contact the NASI Project. I’m sure they will make it abailable to you as they will to anyone who ask.
and here’s a little secret for all those poeple who think AZ is the brawn behind NASI.
I haven’t even studied the numbers, I’m not a mathemitician. The obvious statment that younger is larger was pashut to me as was the obviouls statment that girls beging dating on average a few years earlier than boys, and thus I use this venue to promote their mission.
The people behind the NASI Project. Yeah, they studied the numbers and had them reviewed by numerous people.
you said it starts with 100 and 100 in the game.
no it doesn’t.
I feel sorry your not convinced- oh well. Some will be some won’t be, i can live with it.
Mathemiticians study the data of class sizes, growth rates, birtht rates etc…
I for one didn’t get into the nitty gritty of the data, as i don’t need to.
If you feel you do, by all means go for it! You clearly care about the issues instead of posting in this forum BE A DIFFERENCE MAKER!!
I’ll be your biggest supporter.
(btw the problem runs across blocs etc, the only community that seems to be immune to this problme is the chassidishe communies. One exception is Lubavitch. They do have this problem. Interesting-lubavitch boys date at similar ages to litvishe boys.
Just saying……)
If you feel there is pertinent data to bring to the attention of the NASI Project by all means DO SO. If you think that by posting in the cr that will get accomplished, it won’t.
Get in touch with them, you might be pleasantly suprised.
Pba,
You acknowledge that (1) there are more 9th graders than 12th graders.
I assume (correct me if I’m wrong) that you would extend that to say that (2) there are fewer 12th grade boys than there are 9th grade girls, and that you would also agree that (3) the tendency is for the 12th grade buys to marry the 9th grade girls (eventually).
You started this thread assuming two flaws in the application of these facts to the shidduch crises. The first, if point (2) is conceded, would have to be retracted altogether. The second would only be true if it were reasonable to assume that there are more girls leaving the conventional shidduch pool than boys. Anecdotal evidence suggests the opposite, and it’s a waste of time, money, and energy to try to prove the obvious with a controlled study.
Popa: According to the mathematics which you agree to, then it’s actually impossible that there are an equal pool of boys corresponding to the natural pool of girls. You would need to prove that these additional boys really exist, unless you can disprove the mathematical equation which the age gap theory is based on.
Popa: “1. There is no defined pool. There are dozens of overlapping pools, with undefined limits.”
I was discussing the natural pool.
“2. Who cares about the natural pool? We only care about the actual pool.”
The natural pool is very relevant to us, since even if we would like to assume that at this given time there are boys from outside the community who migrate into our community and therby balance the
numbers, we can still be never sure that this trend will continue, and in the future we will not run again into an inbalance of numbers due to the mathematical equation. So yes, the numbers of the natural pool of boys and girl is indeed very crucial here.
“Why do I have the burden of proof? I’m merely suggesting that the age gap is not shown to be the cause of there being more girls than boys, if it ever attacked at all, if it indeed was the enemy.”
The age gap theory is a mathematical fact. We don’t need prove that it causes a number decrepency. It’s actually impossible that it doesn’t cause a number decrepency between the natural pool of boy vs. girls in the community.
Snjn:I have several friends in the Bensonhurst community who are really tochendig, are would be the types to have long term torah learning but because their father are dirt poor they are in their mid 20’s and still sitting.
How do they plan to support their husbands in their holy, long-term learning? Do these girls have college degrees and jobs? Or do they plan to live “pas b’melach”?
If so, then do the boys want that? Why should they live a difficult life learning when they can marry a rich girl and learn with less tirdos?
Perhaps these boys aren’t as shallow as it sounds and would theoretically marry a poor girl but they are afraid that they will eventually be forced to work to feed their family, and they’d rather not take that chance if they want to learn long-term, especially when there is an alternative – marry a rich girl.
Because a “good” girl would never step foot into college, this would label her unfit for a learning boy, a poor girl is theoretically doomed to settle for less than her dream of a learning boy because she will never escape her “poor family” status.
Thinking in mathmatical terms, money is important to have to enable menuchas hanefesh to learn. But hasn’t history proved this wrong, with many gedolim living dirt poor?
There is too much emphasis on gashmiyus in the system with all pressure placed on the heads of girls to live up to ridiculously high standards because in this system, boys (and their mothers!) hold all the power. Midos seem to have become the icing on the cake not what one looks for in a shidduch. Money, looks, grades…all gashmiyus.
If this is what a learning boy bases his marriage on, there is almost no question that he will fail in learning simply because of his disgusting lack of midos.
Derech Eretz kadma latorah.
I referred to the study finding how many girls were still unmarried. Since you did not study the boys, all you have is the conjecture- but no study. I don’t see how you can disagree with that.
Sorry, I thought you were referring to a study which demonstrated that there were more younger girls than older girls. But since you agree that that’s true, and that we start with the “pool” containing more girls than boys, the assumption would be that it remains that way unless either more girls leave the pool, or more boys join it. Again, it seems the opposite.
So you concede that more boys are leaving the pool than girls? So that means that there are also more girls because boys are leaving the pool? So then even if we solve the age gap, there will still be more boys than girls?
Very likely. That doesn’t in any way obviate the need to close the gap. L’moshol, if a family needed to spend $50,000 anually on living expenses but was only earning $48,000, we wouldn’t suggest that they give up a side job with an income of $5,000 (part of the $48k) since they’re anyhow not making ends meet.
Had the reverse been true, and there were more girls leaving the pool and/or more boys leaving, then age gap might counterbalance that and we could keep it. That, I believe, is not the case, however.
Real life doesn’t always follow seemingly logical calculations; such as marry a rich girl, learn forever, marry a poor girl, you’ll have to go to work. The friends I was referring to actually come from families living very simply and Torah learning is truly the priority there. They would never dream of having their husbands go to work, and yes they do live pas b’melach. Marrying rich does not ensure more years in kollel; it’s very much dependent on the wife’s support. By that I do not mean financial, I mean willingness to do this for the long haul and doing without the luxuries that have been so taken for granted like $1000 carriages. In fact, if you look at today’s longest years in kollel people, most of them are poor and live simply. Those that married rich had it easy financially perhaps but somewhere down the line either they had pressure to go to work from their supporters or the rich lifestyle they were leading was not conducive to true shteiging. Face it, the ones that really succeeded in learning long term were those that had an inner desire to, a supportive wife, and yes, those that didn’t expect others to pay all their high standards while they were at it. So these girls may or may not have degrees but their parents can’t promise the minimum $4000 a month of support so they don’t stand a chance. Even if they are able and willing to be the best wives suited for this lifestyle. This you do not find in the chassidishe world. A good girl is valued even if she is poor.
The point that I was trying to make originally was the reason the chassidim don’t have a shidduch crises can be for many reasons and not necessarily only the younger age the boys marry. They look for a shidduch wish such a different attitude. Poor girls don’t get left behind, neither to fat girls. That’s what I was trying to say.
So the problem is that there are very few boys who have this mindset compared to the number of girls. Rabbi Hoffman actually had an article similar to this point in this weeks FTJT.
snjn:
The point that I was trying to make originally was the reason the chassidim don’t have a shidduch crises can be for many reasons and not necessarily only the younger age the boys marry. They look for a shidduch wish such a different attitude. Poor girls don’t get left behind, neither to fat girls. That’s what I was trying to say.
Choosiness would explain why there are many singles remaining; it wouldn’t explain why there’s an imbalance; a much higher percentage of girls than boys. If there were an equal number of boys as girls, for every poor or overweight girl who was left behind, there would be an unmarried boy.
So the problem is that there are very few boys who have this mindset compared to the number of girls. Rabbi Hoffman actually had an article similar to this point in this weeks FTJT.
Yes, but Rabbi Hoffman does not consider it a cause of the shidduch crises. He considers it an effect of the shidduch crises (demographics) and poor midos.
right. The boys mindset is I DESERVE everything in the world and what does he have to give? Why, it’s a privilege to be married to him in the first place so that’s called giving. I think the girls are being taught ideals and the boys are either not being prepared for marriage so they let their baser instincts take over or there’s a terrible way of life being promoted by the boy’s higher ups and that is look for wealth and beauty instead of look for a quality wife. For shame.
snjn: Poor girls/fat girls etc getting left behind is a result of the numbers not a result of attitudes.
I the poor girls/fat girls got married then other girls would get stuck. That what happends when the pool of available girls is far larger then the pool of available boys.
HOw many get stuck is a result of numbers
Which specific girls get stuck will be a result of numberouls factors and attitudes, but in the macro picture it’s highly irrelevant.
YW MOD- There is no little data to support that the crisis is worse in the long term kollel yeshivish community than in other communities.
How come we have more girls than boys? Why didn’t we have this problem years ago? Are there statistics to prove that 20-30-40 years ago the birth rate for girls suddenly increased disproportionally?
The world is being populated with both genders, today as yesterday as the past five thousand years.
The numbers haven’t changed, so obviously something else must have changed. Could it be our attitude??
moi aussi:
It’s not related to birth rates for girls vs. birth rates for girls, it’ the simple reality that
a. in a growing population the younger grades are larger than the older grades
b. our dating style has girl starting at around 19 and guys at 22/23.
The net result is that each year far more girls enter the shidduch pool than guys, and thus each year there is a large number of girls with no on to match up with.
attitudes….. that’s a result of boys having the hammer, not the casue.
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