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With the Gregorian year of 2016 winding down, Israel’s Central Bureau of Statistics (CBS) released the following data on Thursday, 29 Kislev. According to the data, by the year 2065, there will 25 million people living in the State of Israel and the chareidim will comprise 32.1% of the total population and the Arab population will be 19.2%.
There was an addition of 167,000 people in 2016, an increase of 2% as compared to 1% in the past decade. Most of the increase (83%) of the Israeli population is from natural growth and the remainder from migration to Israel. The official number of residents as the year ends is 8.63 million. There were 181,000 babies born in the last year; 24,000 immigrants who made aliyah; 12,000 migrants; 43,000 people died and 7,000 left the country. The CBS adds that by 2040, the population will reach 14.2 million residents and the lowest estimate stands at 12.3 million people.
The average family has 2.5 children today and by 2065; a Jewish non-chareidi family will have an average of 2.9 children while the average chareidi family will number 7 children.
The CBS predicts the birthrate among chareidim will decrease – citing three scenarios from the highest to the lowest birthrates.
- The birthrate by 2036 will be 7.8 children, by 2048 it will be 7.7 children and in 2065, it will continue downward to 7.5 children.
- The birthrate by 2036 will be 6.3 children and continue dropping so that by 2048 it will be 6 and by the year 2065 it will be 5.3 children.
- The birthrate will decrease to 5 by 2036 and drop to 4.3 by 2048 and continue dropping to 3 by the year 2065
(YWN – Israel Desk, Jerusalem)
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5 Responses
I don’t understand how the headline describes the article. Although I guess it certainly gets people to click on it.
Projections////Fools As if Mashiach is a myth Rav Kanievsky is of the opinion it is within months could mean also few years away.
British Prime Minister Benjamin Disraeli said: “There are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies, and statistics.”
The idea that there will be a drop in the birthrate of Torah loyal Jews is wishful thinking. Also that the percentage of confused Jews will stay stable. In the 70s and 80s we saw a major Tshuva movement. We will see something even greater in the very near future.
Based on what logarithm can one predict how many kids a particular demographic group will have, 50 years from now? The factors that will truly make that determination have not been accounted for, because they don’t exist yet. This is preconceived nonsense. (Pun intended)
Re comment no. 4: Excellent pun. But you and commenters nos. 1 – 3 are putting more stock in the forecasts of the Central Bureau of Statistics than even the CBS believes is appropriate. The CBS – or someone – will compare the forecasts to the actual results on a yearly basis and adjust accordingly. The idea is to estimate future financial needs of various government programs, and everyone knows that forecasts beyond 5 years are highly prone to discrepancy with actual results. So everyone please calm down.