I know the polls say Donald Trump cannot win. But what if we are looking at the wrong poll question?
What if Trump’s overwhelming negatives don’t matter? Or, to put it another way, what if the country’s negatives matter more?
Right now, about 6 in 10 Americans have an unfavorable view of Trump, and only 36 percent view him positively.
But the country is faring even worse. In the most recent average of polls calculated by RealClearPolitics, 26.9 percent of Americans think the nation is headed in the right direction and 64.9 percent think we are heading down the wrong track.
So what if even voters who respect Hillary Clinton’s competence reject her as the embodiment of business as usual? And what if even voters who do not like Trump’s bigotry or bluster care more that he will, in their view, shake things up?
Sure, these voters might tell themselves, he may be crude, or inconsistent, or ill-informed. He may insult women and Hispanics and other groups. But it’s part of a shtick. He probably doesn’t mean half of it. He’s just an entertainer. The desire to send a message of disgust or disapproval, in other words, could lead voters to overlook, discount, wish away or excuse many Trump sins.
Meanwhile, Clinton cannot shake free of the status quo. You may remember how this bedeviled Al Gore when he asked voters to give the Democratic Party a third straight presidential term in 2000. The vice president managed to achieve the worst of both worlds, alienating Bill Clinton and his most ardent supporters without establishing himself as an entirely new brand.
Unlike Gore, Hillary Clinton is not an incumbent. But she is no less associated with the establishment, having served as first lady, U.S. senator and secretary of state over the past quarter-century. Even if she were inclined to do so, she could not afford to distance herself from President Obama, whose backers she will need to turn out in large numbers.
I know there is an element of irrationality in these fears. I understand that not every dissatisfied American will vote for Trump.
About two-thirds of the country may think we are on the wrong track, after all, but Obama’s approval rating is 51 percent and rising.
Meanwhile, only 4.7 percent of eligible voters have actually cast a ballot for Trump in the party nomination process so far, as an analysis by FairVote shows. Many of the remaining 95.3 percent, no matter how unhappy most are with the performance of their government, will take their responsibility seriously enough that they will not vote for someone who casually threatens the faith and credit of the United States, breezily posits the merits of nuclear proliferation and cheerfully espouses torture as an instrument of U.S. policy.
Republicans are divided, the economy is improving, the demographics are increasingly in Democrats’ favor. The likeliest result of a Trump nomination is a Republican washout up and down the ballot.
I do get all that.
Still, when I hear smart people explaining why Trump cannot win, all I can think is: Aren’t you the ones who told us that he couldn’t top 30 percent, and then 40 percent, and then 50 percent in the Republican primaries? Weren’t you confident that he was finished after he called Mexicans rapists, and insulted prisoners of war, and dished out a menstruation insult?
Did you predict his nomination? If not, we don’t want to hear your certainty about his November defeat.
Nor is it reassuring to read how happy the Clinton camp must be to be facing such a weak opponent. They need to be running scared – smart, but scared – now and for the next six months.
I do have faith in the American voter, I really do. But when two-thirds of the country is unhappy, a rational outcome can’t be taken for granted.
(c) 2016, The Washington Post · Fred Hiatt
3 Responses
This article is on the mark and well written but I object to one point. The author says that hillary is competent. What has she accomplished other than get elected? She tried to overhaul the medical industry way before obama when bill was president. She failed miserably. She failed in her bid for presidency. She failed as secretary of state from benghazi to her communication setup. What has she done right? At least trump is an unknown while she is a proven failure.
The polls published on May 10 suggest Clinton and Trump are running even, with a real possibility of some blue states going purple, and some purple ones going red. Apparently Trump is attracting many independent and swing voters, and if can keep appealing to them and manage not to alienate the Republican base, he probably will win. Of course, the Democrats could ditch Hillary, since “super-delegates” are never really “pledged” and being career politicians, they will tend to dump a loser.
He’s got the game as long as he talks nicely. He’s just human he hasn’t ran for president or any thing in that nature so he’s not up on being 100% fake just a thought he’s going in the right direction will he win HaShem knows but what’s keeping him from taking it completely is the talk and it may be to late to fix it maybe repent on TV that throw people off maybe they’ll see you in a better light but i am pretty certain he’s going to lose unless he does something about the cometary about people. Only HaShem knows the future i am not a Nabey or anything close to that im just someone who try’s to follow the ways of HaShem Just like most other People