According to a report released by the Washington-based Center for Strategic & International Studies, should Israel decide to launch an attack against Iran, it is more likely it would be done with ballistic missiles, not combat aircraft, a conclusion reached after studying the problems of penetrating the air space of regional nations. The report concludes that a strike with fighter jets is far more risky than launching highly-accurate Jericho Missiles, which Israel is believed to have in its arsenal.
“A military strike by Israel against Iranian Nuclear Facilities is possible and the optimum route would be along the Syrian-Turkish border then over a small portion of Iraq then into Iran, and back the same route. However, the number of aircraft required, refueling along the way and getting to the targets without being detected or intercepted would be complex and high risk and would lack any assurances that the overall mission will have a high success rate”.
The Jerichos are capable of carrying a 750kg (1,650lb) warhead, and according to Abdullah Toukan in his 114-page report, 42 missiles could do the trick, possibility eliminating or at least severely damaging major Iranian nuclear facilities located in Natanz, Esfahan and Arak. He reports the Jericho-3 missiles are extremely accurate, capable of impacting within a number of meters from a target.
Toukan does point out that such an assault would not be without difficulties, including an Iran armed with sophisticated Russian S-300 anti-aircraft system, which could intercept Jerichos.
“If the Jericho III is fully developed and its accuracy is quite high then this scenario could look much more feasible than using combat aircraft,” he said in the March 14 report, titled “Study on a Possible Israeli Strike on Iran’s Nuclear Development Facilities”.
As is the case with Israel’s nuclear arsenal, officials in Jerusalem do not confirm or deny having Jericho ballistic missiles.
He warns however that such a unilateral move by Israel may result in a counter strike with Iranian Shihab missiles, as well as Tehran taking other actions, which might include hitting US Gulf positions, ordering attacks against Jewish targets elsewhere or cutting off oil exports.
The report quotes an Israeli consultant who states only the United States and Russia has real-time satellite capabilities that would detect the rocket launches in ‘real time’, minimizing the chance of Iran obtaining the information.
(Yechiel Spira – YWN Israel)
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7 Responses
Do YWN have access to a Mossad Agent? Whre does this inside news come from?
That’s a silly assessment.
Jericho-3s won’t work against hardened, deeply buried targets. even if they had the requisite delivery CEP (which they don’t), the Israelis don’t have the penetrating warheads needed to be effective, and they wouldn’t risk nukes at this time.
There are other, more efficient ways of doing this mission, should Israel chose to. All of them are highly risky, both technically and politically.
Ein lanu al Mi lihisho’en ela Avinu Shebashamayim.
How about using Hamas’s tunnel drilling techniques to dig under Syria all the way to the nuclear sites?
FYI that photo is of a British 1960s Bloodhound anti-aircraft missile.
The Jericho III is about x5 bigger and is launched vertically.
NO one in history has ever used such missles in combat where serious accuracy was required. The V-2 in World War II were scary due to their lack of accuracy (might hit a factory, might hit a house). The cruise missles the US has used required much more in-flight control than would be available against an enemy capable of defending against them.
Politically, it would mean a long term war with a major threat of escalation, in which Iran would have Arab support (at present they are regarded as pests), and most Europeans would be inclined to be “neutral.” Israel is unlikely to cripple Iran, but would turn it into the leader of the Islamic world.
i agree
silly assessment indeed
why the CEP isnt even close to the RTY capabilities they would need to establish DFG factorial responses, even if a fraction of the DET deployment capabilities were used in TYU mode.
i can name at least six more efficient SDFGHs
I searched Google and found that the article is on the money. Take a look at this link which discussed the capabilities of the Jericho 3 wich was sheduled for deployment in 2005.
http://sketchup.google.com/3dwarehouse/details?mid=7673ebd266508878d18f825b6a8d39e5