Many believe senior Kadima officials feel the only option is a coalition government, hoping to bring Likud into the fold. Without Likud and with Yisrael Beitenu, Kadima’s effort numbers 43 seats. Adding Labor to the equation brings it to 56, a far cry from a parliamentary majority. Meretz’s campaign focused around its absolute refusal to sit in a coalition with Lieberman, and the Arab vote is not likely to be counted among the coalition. Even with Meretz, it leaves Livni with 59. Livni would then be compelled to turn to the religious, who would be less likely to be forthcoming, realizing if Livni is unsuccessful, Netanyahu would lead the nation, a prettier picture from their perspective.
Likud on the other hand may team up with the right-wing parties, including Lieberman, and emerge with a shaky but nonetheless majority of 65 in Knesset, including Yisrael Beitenu, Shas, Yahadut HaTorah, Ichud HaLeumi, and Bayit Yehudi. This is also a shaky composition, with Lieberman and the religious parties, but nonetheless, representing a right-wing bloc which is more doable than Livni’s options.
It is very likely that President Peres will sit Livni and Netanyahu down, with Lieberman, and work towards some type of coalition that may even include a rotation government as was seen in the past, perhaps as was the case in 1988 with Yitzchak Shamir and Shimon Peres.
What is apparent at this early stage following the election is the next government coalition will not enjoy too large a majority and elections may once again take place in less than four years. It does appear however, at least based on their post election addresses, that the major parties now all favor government reform, revamping the system of government to eliminate this system which compels the ruling party to rely on many other parties to maintain a ruling majority.
(Yechiel Spira – YWN Israel)
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6 Responses
Livni would then be compelled to turn to the religious, who would be less likely to be forthcoming,
THE RELIGIOUS ARE FORTHCOMING IF THEIR NEEDS ARE MET, what will happen to the religious in Beitar, Emanuel, Ramot, etc. who will be in the Palestinean state that is another question—-under Livni!!
If Lieberman decides he is an ultra-nationalist first, and an ultra-secularist second – one gets a Likud led right-religious government including Hareidi parties, and a hawkish foreign policy.
If Lieberman decides that being ultra-secular is most important, one gets a left-center government (not to mention drafting yeshiva students and rabbanim, and perhaps frum women as well, or at least depriving Hareidim of civil rights)
If LIkud and Kadima decide they don’t like being dictated to, they form a coalition, and keep all the goodies for themselves (remember most of Kadima only quit Likud a few years ago, they are quite close ideologically).
“Right wing” refers to the French national assembly during the Revolution. Since they are goyim, many of Lieberman’s supporters could have had seats. None of Shas or Yahadut haTorah supporters would have been allowed to vote.
Depending on Likud’s position, you may have an overwhelmingly secular majority, or perhaps enough for smaller, anti-Jewish majority. You probably have a majority for a two-state solution.
You might have a majority that would consider stripping Arabs of civil rights, and perhaps stripping hareidim of civil rights as well.
Rotation means the first 2 years Livni gives back land.
the second 2 years Bibi takes it back.
It will never work
#5 – Mafdal now goes under the name Bayit Hayehudi. They only got 3 seats.
NOW, LIEBERMAN WILL HAVE TO SHOW HIS TRUE COLORS!