If one dissects the reality based on the Channel 1 exit poll, Tzipi Livni and Kadima may have earned the most seats, but lacks a majority in the 120-seat Knesset.
Kadima (30), Likud (28), Yisrael Beitenu (14), Labor (13), Shas (9), Meretz (5), Yahadut HaTorah (5), Bayit Yehudi (4), Hadash (4), Ichud HaLeumi (3), Meretz (5), Ra’am-Ta’al (2).
While Livni has the 30 seats, Netanyahu and the right-wing still reach 49 seats (Likud, Shas, Yahadut HaTorah, Ichud HaLeumi and Bayit Yehudi).
Livni (30) on the other hand, can count on Labor (13) and Meretz (5), totaling 48. It is highly unlikely that Arab parties will agree to join such a coalition following Operation Cast Lead, with Livni and Barak, two senior ministers in the current cabinet.
Livni will have an extremely difficult time persuading Shas (9) to join such a coalition, with Meretz and Yisrael Beitenu, to stabilize the majority, and without Shas, Yahadut HaTorah’s inclusion in unlikely as well.
As was expected, the pivotal vote will rest in the hands of Avigdor Lieberman and his Yisrael Beitenu party (14), who alone can take either bloc, centrist left-wing (Livni) or right-wing (Netanyahu) to a simple majority.
Livni lacks the coalition experience and success, while Netanyahu is a seasoned professional. Netanyahu a short time ago released a first message following the closing of the polls, expressing confidence that he will be tapped to form the next government. Likud officials are already looking at Lieberman, calling on him to announce his support for Likud to ensure the formation of a right-wing government.
(Yechiel Spira – YWN Israel)
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7 Responses
What happened to UTJ?
UTJ = Yahadut HaTorah
It should be noted that Bibi is only right wing compared to Meretz he gave away Chevron and will say ahything to get elected. Why is Meretz listed twice and does this mean that there are only 6 Arabs in the Knesset?
One possibility is that Likud and Kadimah will form a government, keep all the patronage for themselves, and ignore the smaller parties, who will have no choice but to accept crumbs in return for support. Kadimah is basically a spin-off from Likud, and they can could work together.
Lieberman’s demands are intolerable to the Hareidim parties (civil marriage, conscription of yeshiva students and frum women), so the only way Shas and Lieberman will be in the government together is if Likud/Kadimah doesn’t need them and can’t be blackmailed by either.
The “worst case scenario” if the final number support it, is Kadimiah with Lieberman, Labor and Meretz in an anti-religious government, but that is unlikely.
Netanyahu blew it. by disenfranchising the popular rightist leader Feiglin, he angered his right-wing base, and drove them over to Lieberman.
Kadima-Likud-utj-shas makes sense at this point. I think when the votes are counted – Likud will be the winnder –
I’m sure Bibi is really happy about his comment to not make Lieberman the DM. Timed that one beautifully.