Leaks pertaining to back room election deals indicate Likud leader Binyamin Netanyahu, who is likely to become the next prime minister, will not have an easy time negotiating a coalition agreement since he would like to have both Shas and Yisrael Beitenu in his coalition government, but at present, such an eventuality seems highly unlikely.
Despite across-the-board denials, it appears a deal was made between Eli Yishai of Shas and Binyamin Netanyahu which led to Shas’ decision not to enter into a coalition government headed by Tzipi Livni. It was Yishai’s party that literally ousted Livni from his chance at the premiership, but he did so with the understanding Netanyahu will be beholden to him as prime minister.
At the time, Livni claimed Shas was trying to “extort” money which she was unwilling to agree to while Shas stated it was not a matter of money, but Livni’s unwillingness to commit not to enter into talks regarding the future status of portions of Yerushalayim.
On the other hand, Yisrael Beitenu leader Avigdor Lieberman continues to gain momentum and polls show he may emerge with 16 mandates in the 120-seat Knesset. Lieberman and Netanyahu go back a number of years, as the former served as Netanyahu’s bureau chief when he was prime minister. Netanyahu very much wants to include both parties in a broad coalition but this appears most unlikely, at least at present.
The core issue of Lieberman’s campaign is civil marriage, to permit those couples uninterested in kiddushin to bypass the rabbinate and enter a civil marriage, permitting them to shun the traditional and halachic Jewish wedding which is compulsory to date. The negative ramifications of such a situation are obvious, with rabbonim stating it will spell disaster.
Lieberman has stated that this is a deal-beaker and he will not enter into any coalition with any party unwilling to advance his bill to pass it into law, permitting civil marriage in Israel.
Shas on the other hand, a chareidi party, has stated it will not sit in the same coalition with the civil marriage bill, making the two most unlikely partners at present.
Shas has also backed down from demands for the education portfolio, which Likud has announced it will hold for itself, now willing to settle for a position in the Education Ministry overseeing chareidi education.
(Yechiel Spira – YWN Israel)
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A solid win for Netanyahu means he can go to both Shas and Lieberman and threated to leave them out if they don’t come in on his (Netanyahu’s) terms. This might be possible with a sufficiently humbled Labor or Kadimah, ready to enter the government at a low price. He at least wants to force the other parties to beg for admission to the government, rather than to have beg them to join.