The strategists have already begun building possible coalition options as everyone expects President Reuven Rivlin to give the presidential mandate to Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu. While it is believed that Rivlin prefers a national unity coalition government, clearly this was not the will of voters and Labor and Likud were far too divided to entertain seating in the same coalition government.
Following the bitter experience of having Yair Lapid serve as a major coalition partner in the outgoing administration, PM Netanyahu is likely to prefer a coalition that leaves Yesh Atid in opposition together with the Labor, The Movement and Arab bloc parties.
Therefore, the most likely coalition government is as follows:
Likud (30)
Kulanu (10)
Bayit Yehudi (8)
Shas (7)
Yahadut Hatorah (7)
Yisrael Beitenu (6)
This would give the prime minister a comfortable coalition of 68 seats in the 120-seat Knesset.
(YWN – Israel Desk, Jerusalem)
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5 Responses
Lieberman isn’t sitting with the chareidim in a government that cancels the draft.
If Netanyahu has learned anything, after the dust has settled, he will fire police chief Danino and attorney general Weinstein and investigate a few judges. One of the reasons that democracy exists is for civilian control over the police. Juries exist as a check against misuse of the criminal justice system. These guys are not humble servants of the law, people, and heaven. On the contrary they have arbitrary power and have seriously abused it, in addition to being generally incompetent. I do not believe that the legal actions against Leiberman, Marzel, and the Netanyahu have anything to do with law. Rather they are heinous actions motivated by petty politics. Who ever comes next should serve at the pleasure of the ruling coalition and be carefully supervised.
Will Yisrael Beiteinu (as well as Likud and Bait Yehudi) agree to ban penal sanctions for those refusing to serve in the army. It would be “awkward” for Shas and Yahadut ha-Torah to be sitting in the government while the military police are rounding up the students in the yeshivos to take them away in handcuffs. Asking for money for hareidi communities is meaningless when hareidi yeshivos are being closed down for not sending their talmidim to the army.
The alternative is to leave out the hareidim and include either Yesh Atid or Labor.
Here is a coalition Netanyahu can make without having to Include Yisroel Beytenu on the results as of 4:58 this morning with 95% of the precincts reporting. Likud(29) Kulanu(10) Bayit Yehudi(8)Shas(7) & United Torah Judaism (7) which totals 61 seats which is exactly enough to form a Coalition. Netanyahu may be willing to make such a coalition since he & Lapid don’t get along especially since her fired him & there is no way he can build a coalition without Shas & UTJ if he doesn’t include Yesh Atid. Therefore if Avigdor Lieberman of Yisroel Beytenu doesn’t want to be on a coalition that cancels the draft he is not needed.
Lieberman won’t have enough power to force anything. Also, Bochrim were arrested for not reporting to the Draft Office for their rating, which has nothing to do with whether they would be forced to serve.
It was always standard procedure for Yeshiva Bochrim to report and were then granted an exemption. If they are really learning, that exemption status should continue. Netanyahu made a commitment not to force enlistment.