Labor party leader Yitzchak Herzog and his new running partner Tzipi Livni have labeled themselves the “Zionist Camp” and remain optimistic that they will beat out Likud in the upcoming elections.
A Panels Institute poll commissioned by Maariv Sof Shavua (Weekend) reveals that even if the Zionist Camp emerges the victor, Herzog and Livni will not succeed in forming a coalition.
The poll shows that the Zionist Camp will receive 24 seats.
On the political right, Likud will receive 20 seats, Bayit Yehudi 17, and Yisrael Beitenu 10.
Looking at centrist parties, Kahlon receives 10 seats, Yesh Atid 9, Yahadut Hatorah 8 and Shas 6.
The left-wing Meretz party earns 6 seats, Hadash and Ra’am-Ta’al 5, and Balad and Kadima fail to enter the Knesset.
Based on these numbers, the right-wing has 47 seats (Likud, Bayit Yehudi, Yisrael Beitenu) and they can bring in the chareidim and Kahlon to form a coalition of 71.
Labor and Meretz have a combined 30 seats, and even if one wishes to speculate and bring Kahlon on board, with Yesh Atid, they only have 49 seats. In the most unlikely event they manage to persuade Yisrael Beitenu to join, they will have 59 seats, still two short of a simple majority. This would mean bringing in the chareidim and/or Arabs parties, both far from likely.
Based on today’s realities, Lapid will not sit in a coalition with the chareidim, Lieberman will not sit with the Arabs or Shas, and therefore, it does not look like Herzog would be able to assemble a coalition even if he wins the elections.
Should this play out, it would mark the second time that Livni wins and fails to assemble a government, which was the case when Shas refused to come on board when she headed Kadima, compelling the presidential mandate to be given to Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu in his second term.
(YWN – Israel Desk, Jerusalem)
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6 Responses
the only way likud would get the majority then is if kahlon would sit with them and the chareidim
something i learned from israeli politics, never beleive polls
Lieberman will sit with Shas if necessary.
Depending on how desperate they are, the Zionist Left could form a coalition with the Anti-zionist Arabs and the Non-zionist Hareidim.
In that poll, the Zionist Right only gets 50 seats, meaning they will have to include eitehr Hareidim (demanding an end to conscription), or various centrist parties that will undermine the Right’s platform on economics and security matters.
Plus one needs to remember that Israeli polling is inherently unreliable since very small movements can have huge impacts, especially if a part falls below a threshold, and that movements within the margin of error in Israel can make a difference.
Next goverment will have the following in them:
Likud
Bayit yehudi
Kahlon
Hardal yahdus hatorah
Shas
Liberman
And a Yair lapid who will explain his grovel as going into the government to prevent the religious from undoing his accomplishments.
80 seats.
chachamgadol,
the chareidim wouldnt sit with lapid
Livini (NO Torah values) is a Arab lover and also support gay rights. Is leftist Labor party’s head Yitzhak Herzog, a homosexual? NO Torah values
You want acceptable social and Torah values in an Israel formed government, you’re not going to get them from someone who has sexual orientation problems.
Far-left Meretz party MK Nitzan Horowitz, (NO TORAH VALUES) is gay, it’s to expected considering he’s “far left” and he’s so left that he “left” observing Torah. How did this character get in other than those of the same deviant sexual orientation? No Torah values.
These are NOT the people I want in my government even if they have the qualifications.