It did not take too long for the nation to shift into election mode as the news spread of the firing of Justice Minister Tzipi Livni and Finance Minister Yair Lapid from the cabinet. As Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu addressed the nation on Tuesday evening the eve of 11 Kislev to explain his actions, the various news networks released their election polls. Following are some of the results.
One should remember when the polls were conducted, there was talk of early elections but there wasn’t an official announcement until later in the day.
Parenthesis indicate the number of seats held by the party today.
Channel 2 News:
Likud: 22 (18)
Bayit Yehudi 17 (12)
Labor 13 (15)
Moshe Kahlon 10 (0)
Yisrael Beitenu 10 (13)
Yesh Atid 9 (19)
Shas 9 (11)
Yahadut Hatorah 8 (7)
Meretz 7 (6)
The Movement 4 (6)
Kadima 0 (2)
Arab Parties 11 (11)
Prof. Mina Tzemach, who conducted the poll, explains a number of interesting facts regarding the polls and the habits of voters.
How many Israelis approve of the call for early elections?
38% approve
55% disapprove
Who is to blame for the early elections?
39% PM Netanyahu
30% FM Lapid
23% The two share an equal share of the blame
What is your opinion of Yair Lapid’s Zero VAT Bill?
48% in favor
33% opposed
· 5% of the eligible voters in this election will be first-time voters
· Likud received a good share of first time voters in the last election
· Bayit Yehudi will be receiving more first-time voters this time than Likud
· 25% of Moshe Kahlon’s votes will come from Likud
· Kahlon will be taking votes from Bayit Yehudi too
· Likud will be taking votes from Bayit Yehudi and Yesh Atid
Channel 10:
The poll was conducted by Prof. Camil Fuchs, who explains in this election, it appears Moshe Kahlon, a former Likud minister, will be the Yair Lapid of the last election. Fuchs explains Kahlon comes from Likud and is credited with breaking the monopoly of the cellular telephone companies and therefore, comes with more credibility that Lapid in his first election for he lacked any experience .
Fuchs adds that voters not only remember Kahlon, but each household benefits from his actions because cell phone bill dropped from hundreds of shekels monthly to less than 100 NIS with unlimited service. Prof. Fuchs explains that most interesting is the fact that based on the response from participants in the poll, Kahlon takes votes from everyone including two seats from Likud but from Labor, Shas and Bayit Yehudi too.
Likud: 22 (18)
Bayit Yehudi 17 (12)
Labor 13 (15)
Moshe Kahlon 12 (0)
Yisrael Beitenu 12 (13)
Yesh Atid 9 (19)
Shas 7 (11)
Yahadut Hatorah 8 (7)
Meretz 7 (6)
The Movement 4 (6)
Kadima 0 (2)
Arab Parties 9 (11)
A final note:
The cost of the elections for the 20th Knesset are estimated at 2 billion shekels, 1 billion less than it would have cost to pass Yair Lapid’s Zero VAT Bill.
(YWN – Israel Desk, Jerusalem)
2 Responses
Israeli polls are very unreliable (comparedto American polls), in part since many Israelis are from countries where is was important to “answer correctly” when asked if you support the powers that be, in part since most Israelis perceive the pollsters to be from left-wing media and they want to give the pollster the answer they want, and since many Israelis hold the media in contempt and don’t answer the polls.
However from the numbers, it suggests that Livni might slip below the threshold, as might the Arab parties, and that if Shas splits it might be in danger of falling below the threshold.
Will the elections produce a more stable government, representative of the majority of ISRAELI/jewish values, and Able TO WORK TOGETHER ?