Following is the latest Yediot Achronot election poll conducted by Dr. Mina Tzemach of the Dahaf Institute. 503 people representing a cross-section of eligible voters responded. Margin of error +/- 4.3%.
Numbers in parenthesis reflect the November 20th poll.
Likud – 31 (32)
Kadima – 24 (26)
Labor – 11 (8)
Shas – 11 (11)
Yisrael Beitenu – 10 (9)
Arab Parties – 10 (11)
Meretz – 7 (7)
UTJ – 7 (7)
Bayit Yehuda – 6 (6)
Green – 3 (3)
(Yechiel Spira – YWN Israel)
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One Response
Assuming the poll is correct (and noting the usual bias in such polls is to inflate the secular Ashkeazi vote), Likud will either have to Shas/UTJ
to sit in the same goverment as Yisrael Beitenu, or recruit some left wing parties (Labor might be available) to help.
Note the margin of error in the poll is eqivalent to five seats. Five seats to the left and Kadima can form a government with labor, Meretz, Greens, and the Arab parties (which means the Arabs would stay out, and some Jewish parties concerned with social issues such as Shas would join). Five seats to the religious right, and Likud would have no choice but to rely on the religious parties. An error of half a percent, and the Greens are out of the picture with their vote being split by the other parties.