There are a number of polls appearing in Thursday’s daily newspapers — citing election results for the general election for the 18th Knesset if elections were held today. The polls were conducted on Wednesday, November 19, 2008.
Numbers in parenthesis refer to party’s mandates in the previous poll of October 27th.
YEDIOT ACHRONOT:
Likud – 32 (26)
Kadima – 26 (29)
Shas – 11 (11)
Arab Parties – 11 (10)
Yisrael Beitenu – 9 (9)
Labor – 8 (11)
UTJ – 7 (7)
Meretz – 7 (6)
New Right-Wing Bloc – 6 (7)
Green Party 3 (2)
The poll is based on the response of 500 eligible voters representing a cross-section of Israeli adults. Margin of error +/- 4.6%.
HAARETZ:
Likud – 34
Kadima – 28
Shas – 10
Arab Parties – 11
Yisrael Beitenu – 10
Labor – 10
UTJ – 6
Meretz – 7 (headed by Chaim Oron)
New Right-Wing Bloc – 4
Green – 0
Pensioners – 0
Social Justice (Gaydamak) – 0
Dr. Ephraim Sneh’s party – 0
Who is most suited to serve as defense minister?
Shaul Mofaz – 28%
Ehud Barak – 26%
Moshe Ya’alon – 22%
Do not know – 24%
The poll is based on the response of 488 eligible voters representing a cross-section of Israeli adults. Margin of error +/- 4.5%.
(Yechiel Spira – YWN Israel)
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One Response
If the numbers are correct, and Israeli polls have usually been less reliable than Americans (and consistently show a left-wing bias), Likud is in big trouble since it will have to find a way to get Yisrael Beiteinu to sit in the government with the Hareidi parties, or alternatively, Likud will need a “left wing” partner such as Kadima (allowing it to ignore all the small parties), or perhaps the remnants of the Labor party. It also might be possible based on the above numbers to set up a left wing government if it includes the Hareidim (meaning economic concessions to the frum and the poor, in return for a dove-ish foreign policy).
The number to look for is LIKUD plus the new RIGHT-WING RELIGIOUS party (formerly National Union, NRP, etc.). If you can the add the Hareidim OR Yisrael Beiteinu, and get 61 seats, Likud has a win. If you need both the Hareidim and Yisrael Beiteinu, Likud has a problem.