The Knesset Channel commissioned Panels Institute to conduct a poll which reveals the political map has not changed. Likud and Bayit Yehudi continue in the lead was Yesh Atid and Labor continue treading water.
The poll shows a right-wing chareidi coalition would have 71 seats of the 120-seat Knesset.
Parenthesis shows how many seats the party has in the current Knesset.
Likud 28 (31 with Yisrael Beitenu), Bayit Yehudi 19 (12), Labor 15 (15), Yesh Atid 11 (19), Meretz 10 (6), Yisrael Beitenu 9, Yahadut Hatorah 8 (7), Shas 7 (11), The Movement 4 (6), Hadash 3 (4), Balad 3 (3), Ra’am-Ta’al (4) and Kadima 0 (2).
If elections were held today, Likud would emerge the victor again and with Yisrael Beitenu earning nine seats, combined with Likud there would be an increase from 31 to 37 seats. If one brings in Bayit Yehudi, Yahadut Hatorah and Shas, there could be a right-wing chareidi coalition of 71 seats. This of course is contingent of Naftali Bennett and the chareidim finding a formula to exist in the same coalition.
Yesh Atid loses almost 50% of its support while The Movement barely squeaks by as the new minimum threshold is four seats. The left-wing Meretz party gains significantly, 66%, moving from 6 to 10 seats. The chareidim can form a bloc of 15 seats if Shas and Yahadut Hatorah can work together. This is a significant drop of today’s reality since Shas currently has eleven seats.
This weekly poll did not include a party headed by former Likud Minister Moshe Kahlon, who announced that he plans to run in the next Knesset elections.
(YWN – Israel Desk, Jerusalem)
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4 Responses
If the Hareidim and the Nationalists (Likud, Bayit Yehudi, Yisrael Beiteinu) formed a coalition, as they can now, it would be possible. Indeed, that has been the case for some time and likely will be (unless the Arabs in the West Bank and Gaza get to vote in Israeli elections).
However the Hareidim and the Nationalists disagree of most issues. The Hareidim favor economic and welfare policies designed to help the poor (which includes most Hareidim), which are an anathema to the right-wing (pro-capitalism) parties. The Hareidim oppose conscription (at least of their own community), and the right-wing parties are heavily in favor of conscripting hareidi yeshiva students. And while many hareidi baal ha-battim are hawkish, many if not most rabbanim are doves (either since it looks bad to support having a war if you aren’t willing to soldier in it, or out of the belief that establishing a Jewish state at this time doesn’t justify the bitul Torah of war and is perhaps not even allowed).
Politically, the nationalist parties are unlikely to cancel conscription and subsidize Torah studies, since their rank and file would be outraged.
Mathematically possible – yes, but politically – highly unlikely:
1. No one is making a coalition with Shas while Deri is its leader. All the Zionist parties in the Knesset have made this clear. On the other hand, should Deri resign or be ousted it would be welcomed by all. But it would have to make peace with the draft law (which is possible but some more time may be required).
2. Given the antics of UTJ since the last elections it is highly unlikely that either Yisrael Beiteinu or Habatyit Hayehudi would join a coalition with it. And Netanyah would be unlikely to choose to build such a volatile coalition in the first place.
or maybe everyone bends a little bit and you have a coalition. Bennett, Liberman, and Deri are perhaps not the resha’im that their detractors claim they are. And the laws can be adjusted, winks, nods and a few dollars and everyone will be happy. Plus firing Lapid is a mitzvoh too. no? So, I think it’s possible. As long as the extremists are brought under control.
#3-
A. “Bennett, Liberman, and Deri are perhaps not the resha’im that their detractors claim they are” – but not Lapid?
B. “And the laws can be adjusted, winks, nods and a few dollars and everyone will be happy” – the mainstream public is sick and tired of that mindset.