Israeli officials are expressing growing unease over the increasing likelihood that nuclear negotiations between the United States and Iran will succeed, according to a report by Israel’s Kan public broadcaster. The shift in assessment follows the third round of talks held in Oman over the weekend, which have raised fears in Jerusalem that a new nuclear deal may not sufficiently curb Iran’s nuclear ambitions.

Previously skeptical that the talks would yield any agreement, Israeli authorities now believe the negotiations are more likely to produce a deal than to fail. This development is viewed with alarm, as officials fear the emerging agreement may compromise Israel’s security by allowing Iran to retain significant nuclear capabilities.

The US-Iran nuclear talks, relaunched in April, seek to address Iran’s nuclear program and prevent it from developing nuclear weapons. Mediated by Oman, the indirect discussions involve U.S. Special Envoy Steve Witkoff and Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi. The first round occurred in Muscat on April 12, followed by Rome on April 19, and Oman again on April 26. A fourth round is scheduled for May 3, 2025, indicating sustained diplomatic engagement.

The negotiations come in the wake of the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), which collapsed after the U.S. withdrawal in 2018 under President Donald Trump. Since then, Iran has enriched uranium to 60% purity—nearing weapons-grade levels—and restricted International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) inspections, prompting concerns about its nuclear intentions. While Tehran claims its program is civilian, Israel and Western nations suspect Iran is pursuing nuclear weapons.

Unlike earlier demands for the complete dismantlement of Iran’s nuclear infrastructure, the U.S. has adopted a more flexible stance, focusing on limiting uranium enrichment. This shift has heightened Israeli concerns, as officials advocate for a “Libya-style” deal requiring the total destruction of Iran’s nuclear facilities under U.S. oversight.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has consistently warned that a nuclear-armed Iran poses an existential threat, a position he reiterated during his meeting with President Trump earlier this month. Netanyahu has argued that a “bad deal” is worse than no deal, insisting that any agreement must eliminate Iran’s nuclear capabilities entirely.

The Kan report highlights Israel’s apprehension that the talks’ likely success could result in a deal that falls short of these demands. Israeli officials are particularly troubled by indications that the U.S. is not pressing for the dismantlement of Iran’s nuclear infrastructure. A senior Trump administration official described “progress” in the latest round but noted that “much work” remains, fueling fears in Jerusalem that the agreement may allow Iran to maintain breakout capacity.

Regional dynamics add to Israel’s concerns. While Iran’s proxies, such as Hamas and Hezbollah, have been weakened by Israeli operations since October 2023, and the fall of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad in December 2024 has isolated Tehran, these factors may push Iran toward a deal that preserves its nuclear program in exchange for sanctions relief. Israeli officials worry that such an outcome would embolden Iran in the long term.

Israel’s unease is compounded by several factors. First, reports suggest that U.S. envoy Witkoff’s proposals in Oman did not include military threats or demands for a Libya-style deal, raising fears that the agreement will lack enforceable mechanisms to prevent Iran from advancing its nuclear program post-Trump presidency. Second, Iran’s ongoing fortification of nuclear sites, including deeply buried complexes at Natanz detected in March 2025 satellite imagery, suggests Tehran is preparing to withstand potential U.S. or Israeli strikes.

Internal divisions within the Trump administration further complicate the situation. While some officials, such as National Security Adviser Mike Waltz and Secretary of State Marco Rubio, support a tougher stance, others favor a compromise to avoid military escalation. This lack of cohesion has frustrated Israeli leaders, who fear a deal that prioritizes short-term stability over long-term security.

Amid diplomatic efforts, Israel is actively preparing for alternative scenarios. In April, Israel reportedly proposed a joint U.S.-Israel strike on Iran’s nuclear facilities for May, but Trump opted for diplomacy. Israeli officials are now exploring a limited strike requiring minimal U.S. support, though such action risks straining bilateral ties and provoking Iranian retaliation.

A senior Iranian official warned that any attack would trigger a “harsh and unwavering response,” noting that Iran is rebuilding its air defenses with Russian assistance following Israeli strikes in October 2024.

The potential success of the talks carries significant implications for the Middle East. A deal could temporarily de-escalate tensions and provide Iran with sanctions relief, but Israeli officials warn that a weak agreement could enable Iran to resume its nuclear ambitions, threatening regional stability. The international community, including Germany, France, Britain, and the European Union, has endorsed diplomacy, with IAEA chief Rafael Grossi set to visit Iran on May 6-8, 2025, for further discussions.

However, Israel remains steadfast in its position that only the complete elimination of Iran’s nuclear program can ensure its security. The government is closely monitoring the talks, maintaining regular communication with Washington to advocate for a deal that aligns with its red lines.

(YWN World Headquarters – NYC)