Undoubtedly, the big winner in the presidential race in Israel was Reuven Rivlin, Israel’s president elect, who will be sworn into office as the tenth president in about six weeks. Rivlin is viewed by most as an elder statesman in the party, a remnant from the Jabotinsky and Begin era when idealists were held in regard as opposed to today’s new political realities.

However the election was far more complicated than just electing a president. It was a power play among Likud faction members for control as well as an opportunity for the chareidi lawmakers to send a clear message to Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu.

In a Yahadut Hatorah faction meeting that was held about ten days before the election, MK Rav Moshe Gafne explained to his colleagues they had to decide if the goal was to get back at the prime minister or the Likud party, for if the former, they would vote for Rivlin in the first round vote but if it was the latter, they were prohibited from supporting Rivlin’s presidential bid.

Truth be said, the day after there is much speculation but not one really knows who voted for whom for it was a secret ballot. It does appear however that based on the fact that the Arab parties, Yesh Atid, Meretz, and The Movement parties did not vote for Rivlin, the chareidim did indeed support him in the second round of voting, and many likely voted for him in round one as well.

What does appear to have occurred however is that the big loser is the prime minister; for a number of reasons. For one thing, it is a known fact that the last person Mr. Netanyahu wanted to see in the President’s Residence is his adversary, but he was compelled to come out in support of his candidacy due to internal party pressure. Interviewed on chareidi radio on Presidential Election Day, MK Rav Yaakov Litzman announced proudly that he was a firm supported of Rivlin and he has been saying this from the beginning of the race. He added “I can say with almost absolute certainty that Bibi and I did not vote for the same candidate,” aware that despite backing the candidate publically, Netanyahu was not about to cast a ballot for Mr. Rivlin.

Inside the Likud internal pressure was exerted by the new stars, Ministers Gideon Saar and Yisrael Katz, sending a clear signal to the Likud leader that his ability to call the shots inside the party is limited at best and they, the new up-and-coming-leaders will dictate policy from now on.

All agree that Mr. Netanyahu’s powerbase inside his party has been compromised significantly. Adding to his defeat was the fact that the chareidim, Shas and Yahadut Hatorah, sent a strong message, one that reaffirmed that despite his desire to exclude them from the coalition, their combined 18 votes are at times critical, and realizing the fragile state of affairs in the coalition today, Mr. Netanyahu knows he may have to coming knocking on Shas’ and Yahadut Hatorah’s doors in the not-so-distant future.

If one does the simple math it is clear the chareidim had to have voted for Rivlin for him to have received 63 votes since clearly the left-wing and Arab parties were not backing him.

In another blow to the prime minister, Foreign Minister Avigdor Lieberman announced his Yisrael Beitenu party would not back Rivlin. Lieberman originally stated that since he and the Likud had allied in the election, he would run with the Likud candidate but the foreign minister made certain to tell the media in a loud and clear voice that he would not back the prime minister’s candidate. Once again a rebellion from within, with the senior minister flexing his own political muscle to send his message to Mr. Netanyahu.

Most believe the question is not if the coalition will break apart but when. The growing tensions that divide that separate Yesh Atid and Bayit Yehudi signal the days of the current coalition are numbered and if the prime minister has to head to elections again, he may find his Likud leadership role challenged in house, not to mention the difficulties in building another coalition should he emerge the successor in another election.

(YWN – Israel Desk, Jerusalem)