New polling from seven key battleground states—Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin—offers encouraging news for supporters of former President Donald Trump, showing he could potentially secure the 270 electoral votes needed to reclaim the White House, if the trends continue through to Election Day.

The survey, conducted by Emerson College, shows Trump holding marginal leads in Arizona, Georgia, North Carolina, and Pennsylvania.

In Arizona, which offers 11 electoral votes, Trump leads Vice President Kamala Harris 49% to 47%, a particularly notable result as Trump edges out Harris among female voters in the state, 50% to 47%. This is a rare occurrence, with analysts suggesting that discontent with Harris’s role in border security may be affecting her standing with both genders.

In Georgia, North Carolina, and Pennsylvania, Trump maintains slim 49% to 48% leads. These states collectively represent 51 electoral votes, and while the margins are narrow, they could be enough to secure key victories for the Republican ticket. Notably, Trump has consistently held 49% in multiple Emerson polls in Pennsylvania, suggesting he may have hit a ceiling in the Keystone State, but with multiple candidates in the field, a plurality could be sufficient.

The poll results indicate a deadlock in Michigan and Wisconsin, with both candidates tied at 49%. According to pollster Spencer Kimball, labor unions are playing a critical role in these battlegrounds. Union households in Michigan favor Harris by 10 points (54% to 44%), while in Wisconsin, her lead is more substantial, with a 62% to 36% advantage. In Pennsylvania, however, Trump leads among union households, 53% to 43%.

Harris leads only in Nevada, where she holds a narrow 48% to 47% advantage, emphasizing just how close the race is in the remaining key states.

While the top of the ticket remains highly competitive, Trump appears to lack down-ballot influence. Senate and gubernatorial races in many of these states show Democratic candidates maintaining leads over their Republican challengers. In Arizona, Republican Kari Lake trails Democratic Rep. Ruben Gallego by 7 points, while Michigan’s Republican candidate Mike Rogers remains 5 points behind Democratic Sen. Debbie Stabenow’s successor.

In Nevada, Republican Sam Brown faces an 8-point deficit against incumbent Sen. Jacky Rosen, who leads 50% to 42%. Wisconsin Sen. Tammy Baldwin is up 4 points against Republican challenger Eric Hovde, a margin that has slightly widened since the last survey.

One bright spot for Republicans comes from Pennsylvania, where GOP Senate candidate Dave McCormick has narrowed the gap with Democratic incumbent Sen. Bob Casey to just 2 points, down from a 5-point deficit in the previous poll.

In North Carolina, scandal-plagued Lt. Gov. Mark Robinson is trailing significantly behind Democratic Attorney General Josh Stein in the race for governor, with Stein leading 50% to 34%. Robinson’s support has sharply dropped since the last Emerson poll.

Overall, while Trump’s campaign is showing promise in key battlegrounds, the tight margins suggest that the outcome of the 2024 election may come down to the smallest of shifts in voter sentiment in the weeks ahead.

(YWN World Headquarters – NYC)