In the grand tradition of Iranian officials “disappearing” only to later “reappear” with medals or mysteriously dead, we’re once again caught in a whirlwind of contradictory reports about the fate of Iran’s top military leaders. The latest star of this tragicomic spectacle? Esmail Qaani, commander of the Quds Force and successor to the Qassem Soleimani, who met his fiery end in a 2020 US drone strike.

Let’s start with the basics. According to Iran’s state media, Qaani is perfectly fine, “in full health,” and soon to be honored with a medal by none other than Ayatollah Ali Khamenei himself. Of course, this wouldn’t be the first time Tehran has claimed someone is alive, well, and about to be rewarded right before news breaks that they’re either under arrest, hospitalized – or dead.

Take, for instance, Hezbollah’s beloved Hassan Nasrallah. When Israel reportedly blew him to pieces in a massive airstrike on Beirut on September 27, the world waited for Iran’s reaction. The only reaction we got? Silence. Nasrallah, as far as Iran was concerned, was still alive and fighting the good fight. And just as they did with Nasrallah, Iranian officials are now apparently trotting out the same old playbook with Qaani: deny, deflect, and delay the truth as long as possible.

Meanwhile, rumors are swirling. According to various reports, Qaani is not only alive, but also under guard, being questioned by Iran’s own security forces. His supposed crime? Allowing Israel to “penetrate” Hezbollah and wipe out much of their senior leadership. Israel has been busy taking out top leaders of the Iranian-led Axis of Resistance, and Qaani’s name might soon be added to that list of failures. In fact, it’s so bad that after Nasrallah’s presumed successor, Hashem Safieddine, was killed in another Israeli strike on October 4, Qaani hasn’t been seen in public.

But don’t worry—Tehran’s officials insist everything is under control. Just like when they claimed Hezbollah commander Fuad Shukr was still alive, only to quietly backtrack when the truth came out. Or the time Iran’s former president, Ebrahim Raisi, supposedly survived a helicopter crash—until he didn’t. And now, reports suggest Qaani may have even suffered a heart attack while under interrogation, though naturally, Iranian state media is keeping tight-lipped about that.

As usual, Iran’s denials don’t stop the speculation. While some sources claim Qaani is being interrogated under house arrest in Tehran, others say he’s still in Lebanon, carefully monitored by Khamenei’s right-hand men. Regardless, it’s clear that Tehran’s top brass is scrambling to figure out how their tightly-knit terror networks fell apart so spectacularly under Israeli pressure.

Of course, if past patterns are any indication, we can expect a either a grand reappearance of Qaani soon, or the announcement of his death. Until then, though, we’re left with yet another chapter in the long, strange saga of Iran’s remarkable ability to keep a straight face while its leaders vanish, reappear, or suddenly die at the worst possible moments.

So, is Qaani alive, dead, or about to be honored? Your guess is as good as anyone else’s. Stay tuned for the next twist in this ongoing geopolitical soap opera.

(YWN World Headquarters – NYC)