Allan Lichtman, known for accurately predicting the outcome of 9 out of the last 10 U.S. presidential elections, has revealed his forecast for the upcoming race. According to Lichtman, Vice President Kamala Harris is poised to reclaim the White House for the Democrats.
In a video first reported by The New York Times, Lichtman explained his prediction, which is based on his signature “13 keys” system. These “true-false” questions assess the strength and performance of the incumbent White House party and focus on factors such as economic conditions, policy success, and charisma of the candidates. Eight of the keys favor Harris, while three align with former President Donald Trump, Lichtman said.
Lichtman, a professor at American University in Washington, D.C., cautioned that foreign policy remains a volatile factor. He highlighted the Biden administration’s involvement in the Gaza conflict as a potential turning point, but noted that even if two foreign policy keys were to flip, Harris would still have the advantage.
Known for his decades of accurate forecasting, Lichtman urged voters to engage in the democratic process, saying, “At least that’s my prediction for this race, but the outcome is up to you, so get out and vote.”
Lichtman’s only misstep in his predictive model came in the contentious 2000 election, where Republican George W. Bush narrowly defeated Democrat Al Gore.
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21 Responses
9/10 will hopefully now become 9/11. Not a bad track record. Down from a 90% to an 81.8% – still pretty impressive.
Trump, with his uncontrollable mouth lost it it 2020 in the last 6 weeks!
Okay so instead of it being 9 out of 10 it will soon be 9 out of 11.
This will be his second incorrect prediction. Harris will not even be a candidate on election day.
Ok so his record will soon be 8 out of 10 correct predictions.
Big deal.
Okay so instead of him being correct 9 out of 10 times, He will soon be correct 9 out of 11.
I think and I hope he’s wrong but first of all I would wait for the debate and second Harris is all about good vibes and charisma I would hope that when a non biased person is going to vote that they would remember that Harris gave all but one softball interview, flip flopped on about 7 major policy decisions all since she was anointed. She has zero accomplishments to her credit. Many of the things she claims she would do could have done in the last 3 years or the next 5 months. Why anyone would vote for her is beyond me.
He was also wrong about 2020, because Trump really won. The thing is, political climate is so polarized that he doesn’t even have the facts straight. In 2020 he was saying Trump is not at all “popular and charismatics”, and he’s “hated and ridiculed”, which led him to say he’ll lose. This liberal ideologue lives in a bubble. He’ll be wrong again…
Ril dw I would’ve also accidentally said 8/10 ur good lol
He also got wrong 2016 (Trump’s first election). He predicated based on plurality winner, not electoral college winner.
Here is Lichtman’s “13 Keys”. Judge for yourself if you think they apply more towards Trump or Harris. BTW – the one time he got it wrong was in 2016 when he predicted that Clinton would win against TRUMP! HE WAS WRONG!!!
1 Party mandate – After the midterm elections, the incumbent party holds more seats in the U.S. House of Representatives than after the previous midterm elections.
2 No primary contest – There is no serious contest for the incumbent party nomination.
3 Incumbent seeking re-election – The incumbent party candidate is the sitting president.
4 No third party – There is no significant third party or independent campaign.
5 Strong short-term economy – The economy is not in recession during the election campaign.
6 Strong long-term economy – Real per capita economic growth during the term equals or exceeds mean growth during the previous two terms.
7 Major policy change – The incumbent administration effects major changes in national policy.
8 No social unrest – There is no sustained social unrest during the term.
9 No scandal – The incumbent administration is untainted by major scandal.
10 No foreign or military failure – The incumbent administration suffers no major failure in foreign or military affairs.
11 Major foreign or military success – The incumbent administration achieves a major success in foreign or military affairs.
12 Charismatic incumbent – The incumbent party candidate is charismatic or a national hero.
13 Uncharismatic challenger – The challenging party candidate is not charismatic or a national hero.
He’s a real scientist .
Chas VSHALOM. She wins 😱😱😱SHES EVIL. AND THE VP PICK IS A DESPICABLE jew hater. Time for Aaliyah
Raina: We need Hashem’s protection everywhere. Eretz Yisroel is unfortunately surrounded and infested with many more and worse Jew haters.
Yashar, thanks for the vote of confidence.
I misread it. I though it said 8 out of 9.. my bad.
Guess I won’t be president lol.
Lol
His prediction will cuase Harris’ voters not to rush to vote and will drive out Trump voters to vote.
Thank you Lichtman for assisting Trump’s campaign.
the torah sets out a very strict criterion for prophesy and a very harsh punishment for failed prophets.
Ril.
If Biden could be you could definitely be.
In other news, an economist who predicted 10 out of last 5 recessions predicts an economic boom.
@voiceofreason, hate to break it to you but it was in 2000 that he was wrong. Not in 2016. But Bush and Gore drew practically on that one.
@levi365248 Here are some online quotes:
“His track record spans four decades and 10 presidential races, with his only miss being in 2000, when he predicted Democrat Al Gore to defeat Republican George W Bush. Gore did win the popular vote but lost the electoral college by a razor-thin margin.”
“Though Lichtman claims he called the 2016 election correctly based on the 13 keys, his 2016 book and paper stated that the keys only referred to the popular vote, which Donald Trump lost.”
How he claims failure in 2000 and success in 2016 when the conditions are the same is beyond me. As far as I am concern, he was wrong twice.