Back in 1990, about 8 percent of the U.S. population had no religious preference. By 2010, this percentage had more than doubled to 18 percent. That’s a difference of about 25 million people, all of whom have somehow lost their religion.
That raises an obvious question: how come? Why are Americans losing their faith?
Today, we get a possible answer thanks to the work of Allen Downey, a computer scientist at the Olin College of Engineering in Massachusetts, who has analyzed the data in detail. He says that the demise is the result of several factors but the most controversial of these is the rise of the Internet. He concludes that the increase in Internet use in the last two decades has caused a significant drop in religious affiliation.
Downey’s data comes from the General Social Survey, a widely respected sociological survey carried out by the University of Chicago, that has regularly measure people’s attitudes and demographics since 1972.
In that time, the General Social Survey has asked people questions such as: “what is your religious preference?” and “in what religion were you raised?” It also collects data on each respondent’s age, level of education, socioeconomic group, and so on. And in the Internet era, it has asked how long each person spends online. The total data set that Downey used consists of responses from almost 9,000 people.
Downey’s approach is to determine how the drop in religious affiliation correlates with other elements of the survey such as religious upbringing, socioeconomic status, education, and so on.
He finds that the biggest influence on religious affiliation is religious upbringing—people who are brought up in a religion are more likely to be affiliated to that religion later.
However, the number of people with a religious upbringing has dropped since 1990. It’s easy to imagine how this inevitably leads to a fall in the number who are religious later in life. In fact, Downey’s analysis shows that this is an important factor. However, it cannot account for all of the fall or anywhere near it. In fact, that data indicates that it only explains about 25 percent of the drop.
He goes on to show that college-level education also correlates with the drop. Once it again, it’s easy to imagine how contact with a wider group of people at college might contribute to a loss of religion.
Since the 1980s, the fraction of people receiving college level education has increased from 17.4 percent to 27.2 percent in the 2000s. So it’s not surprising that this is reflected in the drop in numbers claiming religious affiliation today. But although the correlation is statistically significant, it can only account for about 5 percent of the drop, so some other factor must also be involved.
That’s where the Internet comes in. In the 1980s, Internet use was essentially zero, but in 2010, 53 percent of the population spent two hours per week online and 25 percent surfed for more than 7 hours.
This increase closely matches the decrease in religious affiliation. In fact, Downey calculates that it can account for about 25 percent of the drop.
That’s a fascinating result. It implies that since 1990, the increase in Internet use has had as powerful an influence on religious affiliation as the drop in religious upbringing.
At this point, it’s worth spending a little time talking about the nature of these conclusions. What Downey has found is correlations and any statistician will tell you that correlations do not imply causation. If A is correlated with B, there can be several possible explanations. A might cause B, B might cause A, or some other factor might cause both A and B.
But that does not mean that it is impossible to draw conclusions from correlations, only that they must be properly guarded. “Correlation does provide evidence in favor of causation, especially when we can eliminate alternative explanations or have reason to believe that they are less likely,” says Downey.
For example, it’s easy to imagine that a religious upbringing causes religious affiliation later in life. However, it’s impossible for the correlation to work the other way round. Religious affiliation later in life cannot cause a religious upbringing (although it may color a person’s view of their upbringing).
It’s also straightforward to imagine how spending time on the Internet can lead to religious disaffiliation. “For people living in homogeneous communities, the Internet provides opportunities to find information about people of other religions (and none), and to interact with them personally,” says Downey. “Conversely, it is harder (but not impossible) to imagine plausible reasons why disaffiliation might cause increased Internet use.”
There is another possibility, of course: that a third unidentified factor causes both increased Internet use and religious disaffiliation. But Downey discounts this possibility. “We have controlled for most of the obvious candidates, including income, education, socioeconomic status, and rural/urban environments,” he says.
If this third factor exists, it must have specific characteristics. It would have to be something new that was increasing in prevalence during the 1990s and 2000s, just like the Internet. “It is hard to imagine what that factor might be,” says Downey.
That leaves him in little doubt that his conclusion is reasonable. “Internet use decreases the chance of religious affiliation,” he says.
But there is something else going on here too. Downey has found three factors—the drop in religious upbringing, the increase in college-level education and the increase in Internet use—that together explain about 50 percent of the drop in religious affiliation.
But what of the other 50 percent? In the data, the only factor that correlates with this is date of birth—people born later are less likely to have a religious affiliation. But as Downey points out, year of birth cannot be a causal factor. “So about half of the observed change remains unexplained,” he says.
So that leaves us with a mystery. The drop in religious upbringing and the increase in Internet use seem to be causing people to lose their faith. But something else about modern life that is not captured in this data is having an even bigger impact.
What can that be? Answers please in the comments section.
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31 Responses
Why the title “The Gedolim are Right!”? Of course they are right! We didn’t ever think otherwise. We didn’t need this scholarly study proving their correctness.
The internet is the messenger. The problem is that we are telling our children to stay away from the messenger. We should be telling our children why we believe in what we do. Rather then telling them not to listen to other messages on the internet.
Take evolution for example. Any kid can read about evolution on the internet. Rather than telling them why we do not believe in evolution, or change our view on evolution, we simply tell our kids not to read the internet. We have to deal with the issues. Not try to hide from them.
If you read the article, you will see that the internet is actually one small part of problem. Its one-third of a half of the problem. And that is according to that research.
Gevalt!!! Lets keep our children and ourselves mentally locked up!!! Dont let them see that there are other points of view! Chas Vesholem!!! Let them only think that there is only one point of view: OURS!
Which Gedolim were right? The ones who said that we can’t stop the internet so we should use filters or the ones who said no internet at all? They are two different sets of gedolim. There are many Daas Toras.
I don’t agree. The people I knew who were reform and conservative have slid away from ‘temple’ activities but not due to the Internet, rather, lack of real interest or commitment to their faith.
The internet did not break them down. They themselves did not have much of a connection to Yiddishkeit and so with time they drifted away. There children whose connection was even weaker see the church, whoops, I mean the temple, as a mere bunch of people doing something with no meaning, so why should they even go?
The internet has little to do with this, in my opinion.
The internet is wonderful, because I met my souse on the internet which saved me a lot of Shadchonus money, and I hear many Shiurim over the internet, so having internet is the right thing:- Period!!
Why no mention of the 1000’s of Yiden who came closer to Yidishkeit, Torah & Mitzvos due to the internet.
What a fallacious argument.
If one searches hard enough, one may establish a correlation for anything.
For example –
Between 1910-1990, the Boston Red Sox failed to win a World Series. Between 1990-2013, they won 3. Does that mean that the increase in Boston Red Sox World Championships has similarly led to a loss of religious dedication? The correlation does exist.
Between 1990-present, the use of gasoline decreased as the use of fuel alternatives, including hybrid vehicles increased. Does that mean that the increase in hybrid fuel alternatives also led to a loss of religious dedication? The correlation does exist.
I can do this with innumerable examples.
Therefore, did increased Web usage result in a loss of religious dedication? No Absolutely not. What led to a loss of religious devotion? The same things that always have, namely, unanswered questions, faulty leadership, historical distortion and cultural enlightenment.
All the study said there was a correlation, but provided no proof if it was coincidence or causation. The Media has taken to another level by claim causation when the study never said that. Take any intro level statistics or data class and the first thing you learn is “correlation, is not causation”. OK people, there might be another reason, and this study has already been hacked to shreds by statisticians who pointed out numerous flaws in his data, as well as his trying to claim causation with no proof as to that
The first rule of statistical analysis: Correlation does not imply causation.
Avadah!
Where does the other 50% of the variability come from?
I think it is the rise of the stock market from 2,800 in 1990 to 10,600 in 2010 and now its at 16,500 in 2014
The fact that Gedolim are against casual internet use does not need statistical support and I would not point to this as statistical support. This is statistical speculation, at best.
I do statistical analysis for a living. Based on the description, in the article, it seems that Downey is doing a correlation analysis between numerous factors and decrease in religious affiliation.
The only potential factors he can come up with are those that he included in his data. Of those, he found a few that correlate, including Age, which he discounts because it does not make sense. The factors he did find may be confounded ( not independent of each other) one of them is drop in religious upbringing, which sounds like the most compelling contributor to less religious affiliation. Another is college education, which gedolim are also against, but they never made an asifa about that, and then there is internet use.
This is a national study, so bear in mind, Jews comprise 2% and religious Jews comprise .2%, so there are about 18 respondents in the sample, too small to make any assessment.
I would love to give up the internet… But it is the only place to read the Yeshiva World News!!!
Shazam is correct. While the Gedolim might be right in coming out against the internet (which begs the question, are the people posting here frum) this report proves nothing. there are many factors that would push people off the derech and to say internet is the biggest one is irresponsible. Every factor plays its own part in different people and it is an act of negligence to focus more on one factor that cannot be proven to be the main problem.
They also said to shut down the Haredi online newspapers. So why don’t you follow the Gedoylim and shut down this website? Or do you not follow the Gedoylim?
EDITOR, the words “The Gedolim Are Right!” should be removed from the title.
I have no data to back me up, but I do find in the workplace that so many people are devorced, and that therefore most children are not raised in a family setting the same way they used to. I think this I a great contribution to what causes childer to be not raised in a religious home, as most of them have more then one home. Unless both parents have the same religion and the same level if commitment to it, children will quickly pick up that religion observance is something you can pick and chose. If it has no meaning or purpose for them they chose to drop it.
There are three kinds of lies; lies, damned lies, and statistics.
#8,
What does one thing have to do with the other? And why do you feel bad with the truth??
While looking at Kiruv websites can be ok. It doesn’t justify to watch such as YOUTUBE, FACEBOOK, WHAT’S APP, and other websites that causes people to divorce, moves people away from Judaism, and burns the Neshomas.
jewish reason,
Internet may not be the ONLY reason for moving away from Judaism. But one thing is for sure that browsing a unfiltered internet, moves away people from Judaism, and burns the Neshomos. Ask ANY Rabbi from ultra orthodox, sfardi, etc. Everybody says the same. And now even the Goyim also says so, But YOU understand best.
“Rather than telling them why we do not believe in evolution ”
Even better, explain why evolution is no threat to religion. Even academic Bible study is no threat to religion; the Catholic Church has endorsed it for over 70 years. But pretending that we can simply ignore and shut out these developments isn’t going to be a successful response.
“I met my souse on the internet”
Me, too!
“I hear many Shiurim over the internet”
Me, too! The internet is the greatest opportunity to spread Torah since the invention of the printing press. We should be taking advantage of it rather than trying to suppress it. yutorah.org alone has 65,000 shiurim; where are the charedi equivalents?
“1910-1990, the Boston Red Sox failed to win a World Series”
Actually the Red Sox won the World Series in 1912, 1915, 1916, and 1918. But your point is correct; by this logic the Boston Red Sox’ success “caused” World War One!
“I do statistical analysis for a living”
Me, too. In fact, I have a PhD in biostatistics.
All the caveats said, including the “correlation does not equal causation”, I would strongly suspect that the association of internet use with less religiosity should be examined more carefully. There are probably societal factors that are associated with both that are hard to measure. But something else needs to be stated regarding the application of this research to Judaism: Most measures of religiosity are normed on Protestant Christian populations and do a good job measuring religiosity in those groups. But they may not be a good measure for Jews. For example, frequency of attendance at religious services is generally one of the major factors in such a scale. This clearly does not apply to religious Jewish women for obvious reasons!
And of course there is plenty of absolutely awful stuff on the internet; people with a big yetzer hara might well need to avoid it completely.
#22 and others…. 1) Kosher meat cooked in treif pot becomes treif. 2) Ends does not justify the means.3) Ein oimrim l’adom chet bishvill sheyizkeh chavairoch etc etc
Charliehall,
Your last lines are absolutely WRONG!
FACT is that internet does so much more DAMAGE to the mind body and soul, much more then the good you described above, and that is a Fact!
That’s exactly the reason why you won’t find a Orthodox Rabbi who’ll tell you that using unfiltered internet is permitted according to Das Torah.
Facebook is the one website that has caused millions & millions of divorces & intermarriages to happen.
HOWEVER
like what a few above have said, if you can protect yourself & remove yourself from PHYSICAL internet usages & only use it for spiritual usage then it can be a great thing for you.
Its funny how this debate just goes around in circles. Yes, there are some gadolim who think the interent is evil, some who focus only on the unfiltered aspects of the internet and some who have found ways to use the internet as a positive tool for yiddeshkeit. What is highlights is that “your gadol may not be my gadol” and a certain Gadol may be right on some issues and wrong on others. The seeming contradictions of using the internet to argue against it is always front and center here on YWN but somehow the editors and moderators manage to thread the needle and stay on point.
yungerman: where did you get the notion that facebook caused “millions and millions” of divorces and intermarriages? Unbelievable the things people say with absolutely no support.
So the evils of the internet are being debated on a web site? Am I the only one who sees the irony in that?
Bottom line, the internet has become a part of modern society. That is a fact. Every business that respects itself has a web access. We use it to check our bank statements, pay our bills, and buy things.
So basically they are saying that using the internet makes people less dedicated to religion? This isn’t news. Just look at all those stoners always on the web or playing Xbox all day. They are less dedicated to everything. A couch potato is a couch potato.
Speaking to teachers, mechanchim — secular or religious will point to a generation of “Overstimulated”, “Distracted”, lack of focus or attention students.
Internet, phones and all new technology have increased this craze. Fun, excitement, videos, new music are all part and parcel of life, BALANCE is the question.
Flatbusher, I don’t know what makes you feel so bad with the truth.
FACT: FACEBOOK is cited one out of every five divorces in the United States, according to the Loyola University Health System.
And to other comments above who urge that using the web is a good thing,
FACT: 86% of men are likely to click on inappropriate Internet sites if no one else will know about it. – Journal of the American Psychological Association.
BUT then again you will always find people wholl do the bad and won’t listen to Das Torah. And to anything.they’ll follow the YEITZER HORA and Ruin their lives.
Thank you charliehall – I stand corrected. make it 1920-1990 and the results are the same. Thanks