In a recent Fox News survey of registered voters in Georgia, former President Donald Trump is leading President Biden with just over 50% support in a state that Biden narrowly won by less than 1 point in 2020. The poll reveals that 51% of Peach State voters would support Trump in a hypothetical head-to-head rematch, while 43% would back Biden. This places Trump ahead by a significant 8-point margin, well outside the poll’s margin of sampling error.
The survey also highlights the high level of interest among Georgians in the race, with 78% expressing extreme or very high interest. Among this engaged subgroup, 52% would choose Trump, and 43% would opt for Biden.
Trump maintains strong support from his base, including White evangelicals (85%), conservatives (76%), White voters without a college degree (74%), and rural voters (67%). In contrast, Biden garners support from liberals (87%), Black voters (71%), voters with a college degree (52%), and suburban women (52%).
Interestingly, despite a majority (60%) believing that Biden was legitimately elected in 2020, over 2 in 10 (22%) of that subgroup would still vote for Trump in 2024. Meanwhile, approximately one-third (32%) of respondents express doubts about Biden’s victory, and an overwhelming 97% of this group favors the former president.
In a hypothetical five-way race, Trump remains the frontrunner with 45% support, while Biden sees a drop to 37% support. Third-party candidates, including Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. (8%), Cornel West (3%), and Jill Stein (1%), collectively receive 12% support.
The survey also explored another scenario, replacing Trump with Nikki Haley. In this case, third-party candidates have a different impact, benefiting Biden, who leads with 35% support, followed by Haley at 29%, Kennedy at 18%, West at 3%, and Stein at 1%.
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At this point it is unknown which third party candidates will be seriously active in the fall, and whether “No Labels” will be running a candidate and who it is. Also the platforms may very much matter this year. A strong “America First” (isolationist, anti-NATO, disinterested in Israel) platform will drive many non-MAGA Republicans to a third party or even to Biden. A strongly pro-WOKE (including support for Hamas and for tolerance of anti-Semitism) will drive many Democrats to support a third party, whereas an anti-WOKE platform will drive many supporters of the “Progressive Caucus” to vote for third parties, but might attract anti-MAGA Republicans to vote for Biden.
There can be no meaningful polling until September.