Israeli officials are cautiously optimistic about reaching a limited agreement with Hamas to free some hostages, according to a new report from Politico.

According to two Israeli officials who spoke to the outlet on condition of anonymity, the deal could involve the release of a few dozen Israeli hostages, primarily children and elderly, some of whom are dual nationals, including Americans. These discussions have been facilitated by humanitarian pauses in northern Gaza, which Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu agreed to implement following pressure from the Biden administration.

While the prospect of a deal is on the horizon, the officials warned of several unresolved issues that could impede progress. A significant obstacle is Hamas’s reluctance to provide a complete list of hostages. Moreover, Hamas’s military leadership is demanding either a cease-fire or a more extended humanitarian pause, possibly lasting up to a week.

David Meidan, a former Mossad intelligence officer and Netanyahu’s former coordinator on hostage issues, told Politico that he senses movement regarding the hostages and believes the humanitarian pauses could lead to positive developments. Meidan, who previously negotiated the release of Israeli soldier Gilad Shalit from Hamas captivity, has been advising the families of current hostages and consulting with U.S. diplomats and Israel’s newly appointed hostage envoy, Gal Hirsch.

Meidan emphasizes the importance of identifying effective mediators who can reach key Hamas military leaders in Gaza, viewing the political leaders outside Gaza as less crucial in the negotiation process. He identifies Yehya Sinwar, Hamas’ leader in the Gaza Strip, Mohammed Deif, and Marwan Issa, deputy chief of Hamas’ military wing, as the pivotal figures in these negotiations.

The complexity of the current negotiations exceeds Meidan’s previous experience, with more captives involved and no direct contact between negotiators. The process involves multiple channels of communication, with the Israelis and Americans liaising with the Qataris, who relay messages to the Hamas leaders in Doha, and then to Gaza. The Egyptians also play a critical role in communicating directly with Hamas leaders in Gaza.

Meidan, who has been advocating for prioritizing hostage negotiations, faults Netanyahu for not acting sooner, especially given the intense international reaction to the October 7 attack by Hamas. He suggests using the humanitarian pauses to push for the release of the most vulnerable captives, although he acknowledges the difficulty of this approach.

The increasing impatience and desperation among the families of the hostages may soon pressure Israeli politics. Opposition politicians, including Yair Lapid of the Yesh Atid party, suggest that if faced with a choice between continuing military operations and securing the release of hostages, the Israeli public would prioritize the captives.

Former Prime Minister Ehud Olmert believes that a binary choice between military action and hostage release may not be necessary. However, he and others recognize that a mass call for a cease-fire from the hostages’ families would significantly impact Israel’s domestic politics.

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