The fast-moving omicron variant may cause less severe disease on average, but COVID-19 deaths in the U.S. are climbing and modelers forecast 50,000 to 300,000 more Americans could die by the time the wave subsides in mid-March.
The seven-day rolling average for daily new COVID-19 deaths in the U.S. has been trending upward since mid-November, reaching nearly 1,700 on Jan. 17 — still below the peak of 3,300 in January 2021. COVID-19 deaths among nursing home residents started rising slightly two weeks ago, although still at a rate 10 times less than last year before most residents were vaccinated.
Despite signs omicron causes milder disease on average, the unprecedented level of infection spreading through the country, with cases still soaring in many states, means many vulnerable people will become severely sick. If the higher end of projections comes to pass, that would push total U.S. deaths from COVID-19 over 1 million by early spring.
“A lot of people are still going to die because of how transmissible omicron has been,” said University of South Florida epidemiologist Jason Salemi. “It unfortunately is going to get worse before it gets better.”
Morgues are starting to run out of space in Johnson County, Kansas, said Dr. Sanmi Areola, director of the health department. More than 30 residents have died in the county this year, the vast majority of them unvaccinated.
But the notion that a generally less severe variant could still take the lives of thousands of people has been difficult for health experts to convey. The math of it — that a small percentage of a very high number of infections can yield a very high number of deaths — is difficult to visualize.
“Overall, you’re going to see more sick people even if you as an individual have a lower chance of being sick,” said Katriona Shea of Pennsylvania State University, who co-leads a team that pulls together several pandemic models and shares the combined projections with the White House.
The wave of deaths heading for the United States will crest in late January or early February, Shea said. In early February, weekly deaths could equal or exceed the delta peak, and possibly even surpass the previous U.S. peak in deaths last year.
Some unknown portion of these deaths are among people infected with the delta variant, but experts say omicron is also claiming lives.
“This is omicron driven,” Shea said of the coming wave of deaths. The combined models project 1.5 million Americans will be hospitalized and 191,000 will die from mid-December through mid-March. Taking into account the uncertainty in the models, U.S. deaths during the omicron wave could range from 58,000 to 305,000.
Yet, it’s become increasingly clear that the risk from omicron is lower than from previous variants. New evidence from nearly 70,000 patients in Southern California suggests omicron is causing milder illness than delta.
A study, posted online and cited during a recent White House briefing, found patients with omicron had a 53% lower risk of hospitalization with respiratory symptoms, a 74% lower risk of ICU admission, and a 91% lower risk of death. The study, which has not yet been peer reviewed, comes from researchers at Kaiser Permanente and University of California, Berkeley.
“It’s hard for me to say straight out it’s good news,” said study co-author Sara Y. Tartof, a Kaiser Permanente research scientist. “Maybe there’s good news in the sense that if you are infected your chance of becoming severely ill are decreased, but from a societal perspective it’s a very heavy burden for us. It remains a serious situation, and we need to maintain practices and behaviors we know protect us.”
Overburdened hospitals could also contribute to more deaths, said Marc Lipsitch of Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health and scientific director of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention’s forecasting center.
“In places with extremely short staffing and overloads of patients, as the medical professionals have been telling us, the quality of care begins to suffer,” Lipsitch said. “That may also lead to higher death rates, but that’s not in any of the models that I’m aware of.”
(AP)
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In a wide-ranging and forthright interview with Freddie Sayers, Professor Cyrille Cohen, head of Immunology at Bar Ilan University and a member of the advisory committee for vaccines for the Israeli Government said:
– The Green Pass / vaccine passport concept was no longer relevant in the Omicron era and should be phased out (he expected it to be in short order in Israel)
– He and his colleagues were surprised and disappointed that the vaccines did not prevent transmission, as they had originally hoped
– The biggest mistake of the pandemic in Israel was closing schools and education – he apologised for that
– Widespread infection is now an inevitable part of future immunity — otherwise known as herd immunity
– Omicron has accelerated the pandemic into the endemic phase, in which Covid will be “like flu”
How well have they done with predictions thus far?
It’s like the weatherman. No matter how many times their predictions are abysmally wrong everyone listen to the predictions
אין לנו אלא להשען על אבינו
“Models say’. Surely, if there’s one thing we’ve learned good and well in the past two years, it’s that modelling is GARBAGE, and only the biggest fool would put any reliance on it.
In fact, as opposed to these fake models, not only is death from the Omicron variant so rare as to be almost non-existent, but cases of infection with Omicron are plunging. We hit the peak at least a week ago, and we’re on a fast decline. Omicron is less dangerous than an ordinary flu, and now it is going away.
More generally, the Wuhan virus has become endemic; sooner or later everyone is going to get it, there is no way to prevent it and it’s foolish to try. We should treat it just as we do the flu. Be sensible, wash your hands, don’t sneeze and cough all over people, and take whatever precautions are available, but don’t go overboard and don’t disrupt ordinary life.
Milhouse, unfortunately number of deaths increased in most countries, not just US – UK, Israel, Italy, Spain, Canada. In US, level of death from Sep 21 to now is 5 /mln daily – as high as it was for a month in April 2020 and half of max ever last winter. Maybe we are getting used to this, so it does not sound high anymore?! R’L
What is better, as you are saying, is deaths/case, both because Omicron is less lethal, and also because it makes infected those who were previously sick or had a vaccine, so those who already had immunity…
So, presumably, everyone will eventually get better immunity – after say 3-5 times contact with either one of the newer variants or vaccines. Smart people will have more vaccines, others – natural Russian roulettes.
One thing you have to remember is the sheer number of people with Omicron will make there be many deaths with Omicron regardless of why the person died. (And almost all people who die with Covid are counted as most people die in hospitals and they automatically test everyone).
Just as an example, in UK they tally covid deaths as someone who died within 28 days of positive Covid test. Not sure the exactly parameters in US but I think its similar.
Regardless in the US during the winter there are about 60,000 deaths a week. If you assume that in a given month 20% of the US population gets Omicron (not a crazy assumption – In NYC it was way higher), then by sheer chance there will be 12,000 Covid deaths a week without Omicron causing a single death. So when they say there are 1700 Covid deaths a day (about 12,000 a week) , that could mean Covid is actually causing almost nothing.
Where are the models coming from? South Africa?
Give me a break
So next week, remember to run a big story announcing you were mistaken if it turns out there isn’t a mass-dieoff next week. In the past, you seem to neglect to report when your doomsday prophesies don’t come to fruition.
IF MILLIONS OF DRONES WOULD FLY OVER THE ENTIRE GLOBE AND SPRAY THE ENTIRE POPULATION WITH PURPLE PAINT….THEN THE NEXT DAY HUNDREDS OF THOUSANDS OF SICK PEOPLE DIE, THE CONSENSUS WOULD BE-
THEY ALL DIED FROM THE POISONOUS PURPLE PAINT.
No One needs these models- just look around and see.
Anyone here know of anyone (other than the very old or very sick) that recently died of Covid?
I, personally don’t know anyone that passed away from Covid since at least a year ago B”H
Yeah- when people were dying, we all took Covid seriously- But now?
Every time there is a new wave they are like “now everyone is going to die”
Seriously?!?!?!?!?!? All they accomplish is that no one believes anything they say.
The hospitals can’t manage because they fired the non vaxxed, it’s flu/covid season, and they are putting
anyone that tests positive for Covid in special units!!
Give it up already