@philosopher “Only a small minority of frum men and women are vaccinated” Maybe in your community. Even in frum places with atrocious vaccination rates (which is perhaps one or two major frum communities in the US), they rarely drop below 40%. I think something like 75% of eligible Chareidim in Eretz Yisroel are vaccinated, only slightly less than the national average.
Also, I’m pretty sure that when tens of thousands of frum people got COVID nebbuch, plenty of them were niftar or left too weak to have children for the time being. Not to mention pregnant women who miscarried.
So despite what you claim, we actually do have enough information to determine that the shema of getting COVID is still far worse than the vadai of getting a vaccine.