With municipal elections behind us it is interesting to listen to and read the information released surrounding the Yerushalayim elections. Interestingly, chareidi politicians claim victory as do dati leumi politicians. There has been a flurry of accusations and cross-accusation in the chareidi camp, each placing the blame on others.

We will attempt to take a bit of a deeper look into the election in the capital in an effort to determine what really occurred.

Many members of the chareidi tzibur believe that Moshe Leon lost the election because of the chassidim who did not vote – or more accurately as a result of admorim shlita who permitted their chassidim to vote their hearts.

The jingles are no longer heard and the flyers no longer line the streets in chareidi areas. The question now is what really happened? The numbers tell the real story, which varies in part from the version released by the spin doctors.

106,316 Jerusalemites voted for Nir Barkat, 94,277 for Moshe Leon and 7,428 for Chaim Epstein. Barkat earned 51.1% of the vote as compared to Leon’s 45.3% and Epstein’s 3.57%.

Regarding the vote for city council seats, Yahadut Hatorah earned 53,208 votes, Shas 34,747, Tov 1,833 votes, and Bnei Torah 7,224votes. (These numbers do not include the votes from soldiers). When studying these results by polling stations, by neighborhood and street, we reveal an interesting chapter in contemporary Orthodox sociology and the voting of the frum community.

Is Epstein & the Bnei Torah party responsible for Barkat’s victory?

The response here is a clear “no” for even if the 7,428 received by Epstein went to Leon’s column; the latter would only have received 101,705 votes, still short of Barkat’s 106,316 votes. So the votes that went to Epstein did not directly elect Nir Barkat to a second term.

However, some feel it is not just about numbers, but equally or more importantly it was about Epstein’s party’s influence on the chareidi community’s vote. One of the reasons given for the Agudas Yisrael Moetzas Gedolei Hatorah not endorsing Leon was the realization that even with the backing of the admorim, Leon would have lost due to the influence of the Bnei Torah party. Many posit that if Bnei Torah did not run in the race, then Gur, Belz, Vishnitz, Sanz, Boyan, and the others would have rallied around Leon and he would have been elected as the mayor. However it is not explained why the decision by the litvish party had such an influence on the chassidic courts, at least in the minds of the admorim who permitted chassidim to ‘vote their hearts’. Epstein received 7,428 votes for mayor and his party, Bnei Torah, received 7,224 votes. That means 204 people who voted for him for mayor did not back his party for city council.

Over 50 of the 204 votes came from Arab areas of the capital, perhaps mistaken identity. In the eastern area of the capital, there were 29 votes for Epstein, but they did not vote for Bnei Torah. He received 13 votes in Ras el-Amud and 6 in the so-called Muslim Quarter of the Old City. This means the number of Jews who voted for Epstein among the 204 votes were about 130.

When one analyzes the Yahadut Hatorah vote, we see 53,208 for the city council. In the last Knesset elections some 10 months ago, Yahadut Hatorah received 53,631 votes from Yerushalayim, so one may deduct from here the votes from the chassidim did not go to Epstein as some posit. Hence, one may extrapolate that the lack of a decision by admorim did not result in Barkat’s victory, which was assured anyway, due to Epstein’s participation in the race. In actuality, the admorim assessed the situation correctly and they did not wish to back Leon for if Barkat won a second term, they would be on the outs as Degel Hatorah finds itself today.

Many feel Epstein’s participation in the mayoral race is what handed Barkat the victory, not the decision of the admorim to permit chassidim to ‘vote their hearts’. His party’s inclusion in the race had a powerful impact on the overall atmosphere in the chareidi camp, leading to the admorim opting to remain neutral.

A look at the vote from chassidic areas shows the overwhelming number voted for Leon nonetheless. The question remains is if the chassidim could have delivered an addition 12,000 votes in addition to the votes given to Leon. Most would say no. The chassidim in Yerushalayim number 26,000, and the voting data shows most backed Leon. There are those who voted Gimmel (Yahadut Hatorah) and placed a blank paper in the mayoral race envelope or voted for the opponent, Barkat. However the numbers are churned the chassidim did not hand Barkat his second term in office. There were about 10,000 blank slips at day’s end in the capital.

The analysts feel without Epstein in the race, his votes would have gone to Leon, and the admorim would have backed Leon, earning him additional votes, leading to a Barkat defeat. As one can see it goes back and forth and it is difficult to say what happened. What is certain is the fact that Likud/Beitenu and Avigdor Lieberman failed to deliver the goods in a big way – and this was most likely the largest contributory factor to the Leon defeat.

We have since learned the largest chassidic courts in the capital; Belz, Gur and Vishnitz did not back Barkat. The voter results from the Gush 80 neighborhood give a different picture together with Ramat Shlomo. Barkat received a total of 345 votes. In all of Beis Yisrael and Meah Shearim, Barkat received 100 votes. In Romeima, which is mixed chassidish and litvish, Barkat received 300 votes.

If we continue analyzing the chassidic vote, in Ezras Torah, a major Gur stronghold, Barkat got about 50 votes. On Zichron Yaakov Street, a major Belz stronghold, Barkat received 45 votes.

Interestingly, support for Barkat in litvish areas was about the same as in the chassidish neighborhoods. In Sanhedria, on Magalei HaRim Levin Street poll, a strong litvish area, Barkat received 45 votes, representing 10% of that station. In the chareidi litvish area of N’vei Yaakov, Barkat received 64 votes, and in Bayit Vegan, 100 votes, with the latter representing 16% of that neighborhood’s vote.

The debate will continue as will the accusations but it is clear that the chareidim did not elect Barkat, at least not be their actions, possibly by their inactions.

(YWN – Israel Desk, Jerusalem)