(1)Yes to the the first half of the question. It doesn’t look like Republican are interested in career politicians anymore. Nonpoliticians like Ben Carson and Herman Cain are also very popular in the Republican primaries. My guess is that the next Republican nominee to WIN will be someone like one of them.
(2)The only way Trump can become president again is if (a)Biden REALLY messes up (b)At 82 Biden runs for reelection (c) There are no Republicans running in the primaries who manage to connect with voters (d)Trump actually wants to run again. IOW zero chance
Trump may run in the primaries again for the thrill of adoring crowds. That would be wonderful for whoever actually Republican nominee because the media focus and hate will be focused on Trump instead of him the entire primaries.