Is Kamala Harris Biden’s Trump Card for the November 2020 Elections?

In settling on California Senator Kamala Harris as the second-in-command, has Democratic hopeful Joe Biden improved his chances of winning the 2020 US Elections?

Put another way, is Kamala Harris, who is the first African and Asian woman to get the veep-nod, Biden’s best bet to beat President Donald Trump in November? Or is Biden’s choice for vice president actually going to help advance Trump’s re-election bid down the stretch instead?

So many questions…but no easy answers.

To turn to the subjective test is to fall into ambiguity: however one may lean on the political spectrum, the answers to the aforementioned questions will differ considerably.

Ideally, turning to an objective test might be the best way to gain some clarity. But determining what the most reliable source of objectivity is – that everyone equally would accept – runs into a whole other set of issues.

Traditionally, opinion polls and approval ratings have served as barometers of the national temperature – and according to the latest polls Biden is in the lead over Trump with approval ratings of approximately 50% to 41%.

<blockquote class=”twitter-tweet”>In this poll, Trump closes gap in battleground states: Arizona: Biden 49%, Trump 47% Florida: Biden 49%, Trump 46% Michigan: Biden 50%, Trump 44% North Carolina: Biden 48%, Trump 47% Pennsylvania: Biden 49%, Trump 46% Wisconsin: Biden 49%, Trump 44% <a href=”https://t.co/joBgVaYzS5″>https://t.co/joBgVaYzS5</a>— Jonathan Lemire (@JonLemire) <a href=”https://twitter.com/JonLemire/status/1298581163473281024?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw”>August 26, 2020</a></blockquote> <script async src=”https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js” charset=”utf-8″></script>

Except the Trump camp isn’t putting a whole lot of stock into polls, reminding people just how misleading polls really are and to take them with a pinch of salt.

The “America First” president first thrust the reliability of polls into question four years ago. Case-and-point: Hillary Clinton enjoyed an edge over Trump in public approval ratings and yet, in spite of the polls cornering the presidential elections with Clinton, Trump won the electoral college vote and put paid to the 2016 exit polls. With an exclamation mark.

Trump, in all fairness, has never really been rated highly in national opinion polls. From his first presidential bid to his first term in office, popular approval ratings have largely coasted under the 50% mark.

That Trump’s polling numbers today trail behind his Democratic challenger might well be according to the punditocracy simply par for the course.

And yet, in the latest polling figures there is a perceptible shift. A perceptible improvement in Trump’s ratings which points to a level of stabilization occurring. Ironically, ever since Kamala Harris arrived onto the scene.

From May to June, Biden widened his advantage over Trump in national polls, nudging ahead by double-digits at one point. Riding a national wave of momentum that was sparked by growing protests over the killing of George Floyd in May. Since July, however, Biden didn’t make any new gains and in August his numbers started to slip.

We’re not looking at a massive slide for Biden in polls but rather 1 to 3 points approximately in August. Still, when there is such a premium on every single polling point, even a minimal slide is a noteworthy, and represents a gap that is narrowing between Biden and Trump.

Of course, it’s impossible to attribute Trump’s improved rating solely at Harris’ feet – interesting coincidence of timing it may be. It’s not the only political development of August, after all. Trump revived his White House briefings and ramped up campaigning this month and, most notably, brokered a historic deal between Israel and UAE to normalize relations.

Where Biden experienced an eyebrow-raising fall is in prediction markets, according to Sportsbookreview, which is abreast of the 2020 US Elections, covering the betting aspect of the presidential race including changes in the political odds and betting trends.

Prediction markets – simple political betting markets where the value of both Republican and Democratic candidates depends on where bookmakers set it and how the public bets – are forecasting the 2020 US Elections in favor of Biden – at least, right now.

Immediately after Biden announced Kamala Harris as his running mate, the Democratic presidential nominee’s odds plunged. And they haven’t recovered since. By that same token, Trump saw his odds to win re-election improve for the first time since June. According to betting insiders, an increase in the betting on Trump prompted this market adjustment.

<blockquote class=”twitter-tweet”>“America is an idea. An idea stronger than any army. More powerful than any dictator or tyrant. It gives hope— The most powerful idea in the history of the world beats in the heart of the people of this country—it unites us.”🗽 Powerful.🇺🇸<a href=”https://twitter.com/hashtag/BidenHarris?src=hash&ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw”>#BidenHarris</a> <a href=”https://t.co/cFDiampP3i”>pic.twitter.com/cFDiampP3i</a>— Dean Wallace 🗳🗽 (@deanofdublin) <a href=”https://twitter.com/deanofdublin/status/1299020422969606144?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw”>August 27, 2020</a></blockquote> <script async src=”https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js” charset=”utf-8″></script>

Slightly declining polls and shifting odds isn’t empirical evidence of Biden’s camp getting the veep stakes wrong. But they’re certainly showing a surge in Trump’s chances for a second term in office. Whether that amounts to anything or nothing, when all is said and done, in November remains to be seen. There’s still a way to go before the 2020 US Elections get underway.