Electoral Politics After Coronavirus

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  • #1849110
    Joseph
    Participant

    How will the coronavirus pandemic emergency affect the upcoming elections this year?

    Will President Trump benefits with Americans viewing him as a wartime President who successfully prevented the coronavirus from becoming a worst case scenario thereby saving American lives with his decisive actions deploying new hospital beds and ICUs as well as medical equipment such as ventilators that staved off an Italy or Spain like situation of hospitals being unable to hand the number of patients and running short of ventilators? And the number of deaths did not reach the predicted figures of 100,000 to 240,000 estimated by the respected Dr. Anthony S. Fauci?

    Has Joe Biden been marginalized with Americans barely hearing a peep out of him during this national emergency?

    How will the outcome of Congressional elections be affected by the pandemic?

    #1849150
    akuperma
    Participant

    The Democrats will blame the Republicans, and the Republicans will blame the Democrats. Trump will blame the Chinese and point out the Democrats objected when he wanted to ban them from coming to the US. The Democrats will quote early Trump statements saying this wasn’t a crisis. The Libertarians will say the economic collapse was not necessary since outside of a few cities, the virus appears to only kill sick and elderly, and that the focus should have been on isolating the vulnerable rather than crashing the economy.

    No hiddushim should be expected.

    #1849188
    Joseph
    Participant

    Who (party/candidates) will benefit electorally on election day from the crisis compared to had there been no health crisis this year?

    #1849223
    Luna Lovegood
    Participant

    Joseph:
    Not sure where you’re getting your news from (although, I can probably guess) but Trump hasn’t “successfully prevented the coronavirus from becoming a worst case scenario” or “staved off an Italy or Spain like situation”
    America has surpassed the death toll of Italy and Spain. And we are just barely reaching the peak. Hospitals are understaffed and not enough PPE is available. People will be denied ventilators , if hospitals haven’t started denying them already.
    It’s great that we haven’t reached the predicted number of deaths, and I pray we never do, but the current death toll is too high to call the response from the US government a “success”.

    #1849253
    Joseph
    Participant

    Luna: America is a much much bigger country. Look at the PER CAPITA rates to compare to other countries.

    America is doing much much better comparatively.

    And America’s hospitals, even in the epicenter of the US crisis in New York, NEVER ran out of hospital beds, ICU beds or ventilators despite the governor and mayor of New York yelling that they were days away from running out.

    Thank you Mr. President!

    #1849244
    Milhouse
    Participant

    Trump definitely benefits. But anything can happen between now and November, including the Democrats pulling a Lautenberg maneuver in late October, swapping out Biden for someone they think will do better. (And the replacement will not necessarily be Biden’s running mate.)

    #1849288
    Joseph
    Participant

    Milhouse: Pulling a Lautenberg on a federal election conducted across 50 States is virtually impossible in a Presidential election since not all States would agree and as such it would legally split the Democrats electoral vote in the Electoral College.

    #1849300
    Gadolhadorah
    Participant

    If we are back to some semblance of “normal” within a few weeks, than Trump will clearly be the winner and they might as well cancel the election. If this drags on to the Summer, Joe can start measuring the Oval Office for new draperies.

    #1849317
    som1
    Participant

    the media is going to try to blame trump but i think people are starting to realize how crazy the media is, first they blame trump for being to harsh and making a travel ban then they say how trump isnt doing anything to stop corona so i think it would benefit trump because people realize hes doing a good job in dealing with coronavirus

    #1849358
    Gadolhadorah
    Participant

    Media has it right an wrong. he was very slow to acknowledge the crisis but once the seriousness of the threat was finally internalized, he probably has done as well as any politician could have done to mobilize a dysfunctional federal government to respond. I wish he would suspend his constant need for adulation during the crisis (25 percent of the time at the daily Corona news conferences are wasted on useless statistics w/o any context and genuflection by his minions) but overall he media should stop looking backwards on what could have been done better. We are where we are, for better or worse.

    #1849390
    Milhouse
    Participant

    Joseph, on the contrary, the Lautenberg maneuver is easier in a presidential election, because the fifty state elections are not for the president at all, but for lists of would-be electors, who are pledged to support their respective parties’ nominee. Each party’s rules say that its national committee has the authority to replace the presidential ticket. They can do so two weeks before the election, or the day before, or even after the election, at any time until Dec 14, when the electors vote. Since electors are chosen for their loyalty to the party, almost all of them can be expected to vote for the new nominee whoever it is.

    #1849391
    Milhouse
    Participant

    No matter what happens at the election, Biden will not become president. He’s not physically capable of it.

    #1850021
    Abba_S
    Participant

    The determining factors are: Will Sander’s supporters come out to vote for Biden or will they sit this one out. Also who will the independents support. Another factor is will Trump help flip the House of back to Republican control? With rallies out Trump is getting his message out while you don’t hear much from Biden

    #1850059
    anonymous Jew
    Participant

    Keep this in mind next time Gov Cuomo complains about lack of respirators and beds.
    In 2015 he was informed that the State had only 2000 respirators on hand when the recommended level ( in the event if a pandemic) was 16000. Instead of buying them, he instead asked his Health Commissioner, Howard Zucker, to create a protocol to in effect determine who shall ( live ) get one and who shall ( die ) not get one.
    At the same time he created the Medicaid Redesign Team. Its purpose included saving money by closing/reducing hospitals with too many empty beds ( i.e Long Beach Med Ctr, Long Island College Hospital, St Vincent’s). It’s hard to criticize this because it’s very expensive to staff empty beds because you might have a pandemic

    #1850118
    Milhouse
    Participant

    Keep this in mind next time Gov Cuomo complains about lack of respirators and beds.
    In 2015 he was informed that the State had only 2000 respirators on hand when the recommended level ( in the event if a pandemic) was 16000. Instead of buying them, he instead asked his Health Commissioner, Howard Zucker, to create a protocol to in effect determine who shall ( live ) get one and who shall ( die ) not get one.

    This is not true at all. And yes, I’ve read the document on which it’s supposedly based. There’s not a single word there even hinting at such a wild story.

    #1850214
    anonymous Jew
    Participant

    Milhouse, you just choose not to believe it. In a 2015 NYS Dept of Health press release, it was called the NYS Taskforce on Life: Update on Ventilator Allocation Guidelines.
    Its purpose was to ” to provide an ethical, clinical and legal framework to help healthcare providers” to make the difficult decisions in the event of a pandemic and there are insufficient ventilators to treat everyone who needs one.

    #1850293
    Milhouse
    Participant

    Anonymous, I have read that document. AT NO POINT was Cuomo EVER presented with a proposal to purchase 16,000 ventilators. There was never any such proposal, never even a suggestion, so it is a LIE to accuse him, as Trump did, of rejecting it. Buying so many ventilators was simply not an option given any consideration.

    Also, IN ADDITION to this, there is no reason to suppose Cuomo ever saw this document. It’s standard contingency planning by a government department, and there would have been no reason to involve the governor. But that’s not the main point.

    I am boruch Hashem very far from Trump Derangement Syndrome. When he is falsely attacked I defend him. And I am certainly no fan of Cuomo. He is a terrible governor, and if the Dems replace Biden with him on the presidential ticket he would make a terrible president. But just as I defend Trump when he is falsely attacked I must defend him too when the same thing happens to him.

    #1850352
    Abba_S
    Participant

    The Democratic Convention is in July and it is doubtful that Covid19 epidemic will be over by then. Cuomo will be to busy fighting the epidemic to run a successful campaign. Besides he needs Federal aid which wouldn’t be provided if he angers President Trump/

    #1850452
    yehudayona
    Participant

    Abba_S, the Democratic Convention has been rescheduled for August. I wouldn’t be surprised if it’s a virtual convention. But I don’t think they’ll nominate anyone but Biden.

    #1850463
    yehudayona
    Participant

    As regards the number of deaths in the U.S., at the moment we’re #1 in number, and #9 in per capita deaths if we eliminate very small countries like San Marino and Andorra. The top ranked non-tiny countries in terms of deaths per million population are Belgium, Spain, Italy, France, UK, Netherlands, Switzerland, Sweden, and then the USA. That’s assuming that every country is telling the truth (doubtful) and they’re all using the same standard as to what deaths are attributed to COVID-19 (even more doubtful). It’s interesting that we’ve all heard of the situation in Spain and Italy, but I’ve read nothing about Belgium.

    #1850533
    Joseph
    Participant

    YY: China and Iran are both top in per capita but are blatantly lying through their teeth about the steep numbers of deaths they’ve both experienced. And other countries are simply ill equipped to even county. They’re not counting deaths that occurred in hospitals before a COVID test could be conducted. And they’re also not counting deaths outside hospitals, such as in nursing homes and in private homes, where many occur prior to hospitalization. Even EU countries like Italy and Spain are omitting those numbers of deaths. The US is counting those deaths. As such, we’re way below in 9th place per capita.

    #1850770
    som1
    Participant

    abbas : after the partisan impeachment scam by the house, the republicans have a guarantee of winning back the house

    #1850773
    Milhouse
    Participant

    If you consider Greater NYC as a separate country, the rest of the USA is not even in the top ten in per capita deaths or per capita cases. New York alone, is.

    #1851606
    yehudayona
    Participant

    Actually, Joseph, no country is counting accurately. Some, like Iran, are probably covering up deaths (weeks ago, there were stories about satellite images of a cemetery near Quds where long trenches were being dug). In the US, different states are following different standards. Probably people without COVID-19 are dying because they can’t access medical care or they’re afraid to go to the hospital. Very few countries have handled this pandemic well, but I don’t know of any country other than the US where it has been so politicized.

    I finally came across an article about Belgium. They are assuming all nursing home deaths are from COVID-19, so their figures are skewed in the opposite direction.

    #1851627
    Joseph
    Participant

    YY: And there are also confirmed reports out of China of there being far more cremated ashes being picked up by family members than the official number of deaths out of Wuhan.

    You haven’t noticed the pandemic having been highly politicized in China? Or in Iran and Spain, for that matter, where the Spanish opposition has made strong claims the Spanish government covered up the real death count by failing to count many deaths.

    In the US the politicization of the pandemic was initiated by the Democrats and their allied left-wing media outlets such as the NY Times, Wash. Post and CNN.

    #1851734
    Abba_S
    Participant

    Will the Pandemic be over by August or will the Democratic Convention be virtual and on the internet where it can be hacked. Likewise will the pandemic be over by November and if not will there be mail in ballots or will we have to vote at the voting booth like Wisconsin.

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