“verses the chance of dying from Covid-19”
that is not what needs to be weighed.
THe chance of dying from covid-19 is (relatively) small. for a younger healthy person the chance is almost negligible.
The problem is overwhelming the healthcare system .
If the virus spreads unchecked lets say half the people in NYC get it. (one of the lower estimates)
There are 8 million people, that means 4 million people get it.
Of those the vast majority (80%) don’t even realize they have it or have very mild symptoms.
That means 800,000 people get fairly sick . Lets say a 10th of them are very sick and need hospitalization.
that’s 80,000 people .
There are about 50,000 hospital beds in NYC (and many of those are obviously being used by those already there or who have other acute conditions unrelated to Corona, Heart attacks, strokes infections etc)
THAT is the problem.
Not to mention that Of those who get very sick from corono-virus many need ICUs or vent. There are about 3,200 ICU beds and 5,000 vents in the city . IF 80,000 people show up w/ respiratory issues many needing vents and there are 5000 vents (many already being used) hopefully you see the catastrophe.
The key is to slow the spread yes half the city might still get it, but not at once, spread out over time Most will be asymptomatic or close to it. but the reality few who get very sick will have beds, vents, not to mention doctors to take care of them .