The latest poll ahead of the September 17, 2019 Knesset election shows that the Likud party remains the largest party. It also shows that Moshe Feiglin’s Zehut party earns seven seats.
The poll gives Likud 28 seats and Blue and White following directly behind with 27. The remaining parties are far behind, beginning with the URWP with 11 seats, New Right with 7, Zehut 7, Hadash-Ta’al 7, Balad-Ra’am 5, Labor 5, Yahadut Hatorah down to 5, Shas down to 4, and Meretz 4.
In previous polls, both Shas and Yahadut Hatorah had seven and eight seats.
The right-wing bloc has 62 seats as compared to the centrist/left with 48. The remaining mandates were lost by parties which did not pass the minimum threshold of four seats: Kulanu 3, Gesher 2, Yisrael Beitenu 2, Tzomet (Oren Hazan) 1, Yachad (Eli Yishai) 1.
The poll was conducted by Machon Miskar via the internet on the basis of a qualitative pool of respondents that was collected and assembled methodologically under the guidance of Dr. Ido Lieberman. The survey data was collected and edited between March 1-3, 2019. The names of the parties appeared in random order for each respondent.
Mandates for parties from 4 seats or more, in numbers rounded off downwards. The sampling error is +/- 2.2%.
It is worthy to point out that the poll included 4,500 respondents, about nine times the usual number, adding addition weight to the surprising results.
The pollsters did not take agreements for surplus votes between parties into consideration, so there may really be a difference of a vote here and there, as well as parties which do not pass the minimum electoral threshold.
(YWN Israel Desk – Jerusalem)
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5 Responses
Very strange takeaway. In the past two or three elections yahadut hatorah and shas reliably received as high or higher of the number of seats polled which had both receiving in the 6-8 seat range. It is highly unlikely that the two chareidi parties will receive any less this time – there has not been significant political warfare against them, but rather against Netanyahu. (The last time Shas lost a significant number of seats it was due to Netanyahu’s Likud campaigning directly at the Sephardim.
Zehut is excellent on Manipulation of online polls. Thats what happened here.
YRS, how exactly could they manipulate it? This is a real poll, not some online clickbait with self-selected participants.
However there’s something VERY wrong here — this poll is from MARCH. It’s from the last election, and has nothing at all to do with now. And comparing its findings with the actual results shows how reliable it wasn’t.
Is it possible that an _Internet_ poll would not accurately gauge support for YTJ and perhaps even Shas?
“The survey data was collected and edited between March 1-3, 2019.”
What does that have to do with now?