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As all seem to agree, the answer to the OP is premised on what metrics you select to measure both “off” and “on’ the derech. It would be interesting to know on an anecdotal basis if anyone here has worked with what might generally be considered “OTD” and what their experience has been in terms of “success stories” among those they initially encounter. Similar anecdotal evidence would be what percentage of bochurim who enroll in yeshivos specializing in “ball tshuvah” talmidim ultimately stay on, graduate and move on to advanced torah studies. The latter group clearly begins with bochurim who have already made a decision to “return” if they went OTD or otherwise grew up in secular families and made a decision to “go frum”.