Complicating matters in Yerushalayim is the fact that the experts in the various intelligence communities are divided on the Syrian issue. While Assad has crossed the red line with the use of sarin gas against civilians, the experts are not in agreement regarding what best serves Israeli interests. Some feel the fall of the Assad regime is the lesser desirable outcome while other welcome the rise of the rebels and ousting of Bashar al-Assad.

Those favoring the rebels taking control explain that if Assad falls, this would deliver a significant blow to the Axis of Evil, referring to Hizbullah and Iran as Assad is a major component of that triangle. This scenario also serves Israeli interests in addressing Iran’s nuclear program. These experts point out that the fall of Assad would bring an abrupt end to the Syrian military threat against Israel while significantly weakening Hizbullah and limiting an Iranian response to an Israel assault against its military program.

The other school of thought appears to be focusing less on the Iranian nuclear threat but more on border realities, and the fact that the border with Syria has been a calm one since the 1973 war. The fear is that with the collapse of the Assad regime undesirable Muslim fundamentalist terrorist elements would take up position in proximity to Israel’s border and use the vantage point to launch terror attacks in Israel. These experts also feel that once Assad is out the terrorists aligned with al-Qaeda and the Global Jihad will move into place and this is less desirable from an Israeli perspective.

Therefore, at least for the time being, it appears that Israel opts for sitting and observing, permitting both sides to wear down the other while carefully monitoring key events such as any effort to seize control of the vast chemical weapons storehouses.

It remains unclear just what Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu feels. Maariv reports he is wary of the west arming rebel forces, realizing no one knows with certainty what will result and if the latter will be willing to work towards a future regional political solution.

Speaking at a Jerusalem Post conference in New York, former Mossad Intelligence Agency Director Meir Dagan played down the Syrian threat against Israel, pointing out for as long as the government and rebel forces are fighting one another, the threat to Israel is minimal. It appears this is the cabinet’s view for the time being, realizing that the situation may change at a moment’s notice.

The British Sunday Times reported that during his visit to Jerusalem last month, US President Barak Obama was presented with intelligence data from the Israeli experts to back Israeli statements that Assad’s forces did indeed use chemical weapons. The five hour high-level briefing included evidence to back these claims. The Times report adds that Obama’s unwillingness to act against Syria despite the use of sarin is of major significance to Israel regarding White House support to prevent Iran from completing its nuclear weapon.

The Times report also quotes Britain’s Chief of Staff General Sir David Richards warning that military intervention may lead to a major regional confrontation. The general also feels that a no fly zone as was seen in Bosnia in 1993 would be ineffective because of Syrian Air Force capabilities.

From a humanistic point of view, some officials including Minister of Environmental Affairs (The Movement) Amir Peretz told the cabinet at Sunday’s meeting that the international community may no longer sit back and watch as hundreds of innocent people are murdered daily in that country. His remarks were echoed during an Israel Radio interview with MK (Labor) Binyamin Ben-Eliezer, who is astonished as the international community sits back and observes the genocide as Hizbullah continues to use the ongoing conflict to arm itself. Ben-Eliezer however is also extremely concerned over the security threat to Israel.

Ben-Eliezer explains that Hizbullah is a “bunch of madmen who would not hesitate to use chemical weapons” insisting Israel must have a plan to react at a moment’s notice due to the alarming realities occurring at the nation’s northern border, which he interprets as a “major threat” to Israel’s security.

“The situation is insane. They passed the red line a long time ago and no one reacts. I am amazed. I understand the Security Cabinet discussed this yesterday and I do not interfere or tell them what to do but this is an immediate threat to the security of the State of Israel. This is not taking place in Yemen, Iraq or Iran but on our border” the former defense minister concluded.

(YWN – Israel Desk, Jerusalem)