“Do you think so? It could be — i am not sure?
Do we have an off the derech percentage? (The MO Study talked about the issue but didnt really come to a percentage number if i recall correctly).
What is “new” — 1 to 5 years? I am sure there is no real available data on this — but its an interesting question.”
When I said new I meant the people who go straight from college campuses to kiruv yeshivas. They come from treif households, but then effectively keep kosher and Shabbos by default when they’re living in yeshiva. From what I’ve seen, these guys frei out A LOT when they leave the kiruv yeshiva.
Now, you could say they don’t truly count as Baal Teshuvas, but are more like “on their way to BT.” You could say it doesn’t count fully until they prove they can survive in the real world. That would be a logical distinction, but we don’t generally make it. We do tend to call these guys in kiruv yeshivas full BT’s, and I think they’d be offended if we didn’t. I would even go as far as to say that time is not an object. Meaning, a BT could stay in yeshiva for 10 years, and still be just as likely to frei out when he leaves because the 10 years don’t prove anything about his ability to be frum in the real world. By the way, I am only really talking about Litvish kiruv; Chabad might work totally differently.