2cents,
Here are the numbers I calculated according to the study.
Group A – No Sibling ASD, Yes MMR (5 yrs)
86,063 children
792 Autistic (860 × .92)
1:108 Autism diagnosis ratio
—-
Group B – No Sibling ASD, No MMR (5 yrs)
7,735 children
68 Autistic (860 × .08)
1:113 Autism diagnosis ratio
—
The rates of Autism are within range for both groups.
While this shows that the Autism rates for the Non-MMR group are equal, it does nothing to demonstrate the real risk ratio for the non-MMR group. If you’re to say that the autism rate is the same, I need to know what the real Autism rate is for Non-MMR.
In order to accurately calculate a risk ratio for the non-MMR group i need to calculate:
Everyone subject to the initial risk ÷ everyone who was diagnosed = risk ratio.
everyone subject to initial risk = everyone 95,000
everyone diagnosed = 68 from non-MMR
Regular non-MMR Autism affects everyone in the group, and therefore must be included when calculating the real ratio.
The study seems to be working as if the only ones who are subject to regular non-MMR autism are the Non-MMR group. The numbers used in Group B is not reflective of a real risk ratio, rendering them useless to calculate anything.
dividing non-MMR group by non-MMR autism = a rate not presenting the real risk at all.
so when taking the real risk ratio into consideration, this study is deceptive