6 Responses

1. Why do they think that’s likely, exactly?

   Sara Netanyahu won’t let Bennett be in the coalition even if not for the external/international (read: American) pressure.

   One of Lapid’s conditions for entering the coalition is resuming talks with the PA. One of Bennett’s conditions for entering the coalition is not resuming talks with the PA.

   That strikes me as a larger issue to tackle than the IDF draft. Shas have been shown to be somewhat flexible on the draft and Yahadut Hatorah will compromise rather than have a blanket recruitment.

   The 18 seats of hareidi parties are worth far more than the troublesome, 13 of Bennet and Mofaz. Remember Bibi wants as large a coalition as possible and he views hareidim as “natural partners” (if for no other reason than they aren’t as extreme as Bennett etc). He’s never made a right wing coalition and I don’t think he’s about to start now.

2. Actually, this is a very sound analysis. Forget Sara Netanyahu,she doesn’t run the party. I think that Bibi will first, take kadima back into Likud (absolutely guaranteed), second talk to Lapid and give him a shot at being Foreign or Finance minister. The third party to the coalition is more tricky. He needs 9 seats to reach 61 and so Shas or Bayit Jehudi are the prime candidates. Maybe even both. UTJ doesn’t have a chance of being included in the coalition and so the draft for everyone is on the table. If shas refuses to sit in the government, then it will be- for sure- bayit Jehudi. Remember that on the issue of talks with the PA, the Likud is heavily tilting to the right. Bibi cannot do a Sharon and repudiate his own party. No otheer party will allow him to remain as Prime minister. Bibi made a terrible mistake by joining forces with Lieberman and so pays the political price for this.

3. #2 While I agree in some respects, there’s a few things to remember;
   1. Shas and Yahadut Hatorah have an agreement that neither will join a coalition without the other. That gives them a combined strength of 18 seats.
   2. Bibi always makes a left or centre-left coalition, hence the old addage “vote right, get left”.
   3. Bibi has been very vocal that he does not want a return to Sharon’s hareidim-less coalition in 2003ish.
   4. It’s obvious he doesn’t want Bayit Yehudi in at all costs, he’s already phoned both Yishai and Deri for meetings and has not made contact with Bennett at all.
   5. He wants as broad a coalition as possible otherwise the government won’t last a year. He needs this for economic and other issues.

   My feeling is the coalition will be;
   Likud
   Yisrael Beiteinu
   Yesh Atid
   Shas/UTJ
   Kadima
   For a total of 70 seats. A comfortable cushion and without the politically incorrect Bennett. The hareidim are a difficult issue sure, but they are easier for him to manage and generally will go along with anything. A compromise on the draft can be reached by staggering recruitment, offering incentives, catering to hareidi needs and (here’s the compromise) increasing funding for the Yeshivot that participate, along with a hesder etc.

4. According to yeshiva worlds prediction roughly 1/2 the knesset would be dati!

5. Kadima? They have been wiped off the map, why? Because they advertised that avrachim get close to 4000 shekel, a soldier only a couple of hundred, even the chilonim know its blatant lie and lost trust in mofaz

6. Kadima is a sure fly, especially with Mofaz getting Defense Minister. They are not too demanding and will be excited with a photo as the new government.

   Livni and the movement is a hard buy for Bibi, she is a ‘big mouth’, completely non predictible and thinks she is PM material. I would keep her as far away as possible.