Intelligence community officials are quite concerned over what some are calling “the quiet before the storm” throughout areas of Yehuda and Shomron. The last weeks have been accompanied by a sharp increase in attacks against Jewish motorists and IDF personnel, including rock-throwing, firebombs and involving gunfire.

There has already been talk of a third intifada, seeking to blame Israel by tying the terror to announced Israeli plans to build in the E1 area. In short, if the PA (Palestinian Authority) cannot accomplish its goals via the diplomatic process, it resorts to the terror card, which has yielded significant gain in the past. Once the unofficial word is given, the violence erupts and the propaganda machine works overtime to blame Israel, as if the violence is a Heavenly decree that cannot be prevented.

It now appears that many experts are not asking “if” this will occur, but “when”, apparently aware the process of renewed attacks has begun. Senior military and intelligence community officials appear to be in agreement, that the violence is brewing and it may erupt to an unprecedented level in the not too distant future, already dubbed the “Third Intifada” by the media.

Some security officials in Yehuda and Shomron accuse the government of trying to cover up the sharp increase in terror attacks during Operation Pillar of Defense, insisting the IDF must begin acting to restore deterrence in those areas. The monthly terror report however documents the increase in attacks during the counterterrorism operation in Gaza.

What has many of the experts concerned are more than the attacks, but the longer term, realizing that PA Chairman Mahmoud Abbas (Abu Mazen) is a weak figure who for years enjoyed marginal support while Hamas is growing in popularity. Yes, it is true that Abu Mazen’s support has increased somewhat following the UN decision to grant the PA non-member observer status, but this is not expected to be a long lasting reality. The realization that Hamas may spread its power base to autonomous areas throughout Yehuda and Shomron is most worrisome, especially after getting a taste of the Hamas arsenal in Operation Pillar of Defense. Intelligence officials view PA autonomous areas becoming more aligned with extreme Islamic elements more in line with Hamas, Hizbullah and Iran as the Fatah moderates continue to drop in popularity.

(YWN – Israel Desk, Jerusalem)