If the Monday, 26 Kislev 5773 poll is any indicator of the general elections in Shevat, Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu can sit back and relax, for his enjoys a large majority. The deal signed with the Yisrael Beitenu Party of Foreign Minister Avigdor Lieberman seems to have benefited the partners mutually, as they joint list continues to gather support. Despite the condemnatory statements from Tzipi Livni of The Movement Party and her colleagues aligned with the left-wing and centrist left-wing, they continue to diminish in numbers in the polls while the Likud and right-wing parties seem to be gaining.
Haaretz asked poll participants to select a candidate for prime minister among Netanyahu, Livni and Labor Party leader Shelly Yacimovich. The incumbent received 64% of the vote while Livni received 24% and Yacimovich 17%.
Polls show the combined Likud/Yisrael Beitenu list climbing towards 40 seats, while Kadima, The Movement and Labor parties are all below 20. Yair Lapid’s Yesh Atid Party, which was showing impressive numbers weeks ago, is down into signal digits, apparently neutralized by the return to Tzipi Livni to the political arena.
This is the first poll published since the parties submitted their lists to the Central Election Committee last Thursday, 22 Kislev 5773.
The poll was conducted by Dr. Camil Fuchs of the Dialogue Institute.
Likud/Yisrael Beitenu: 39 seats
Labor: 17
Shas: 12
Arab Parties: 12 (Ra’am: 5, Balad: 3, Hadash: 4)
Bayit HaYehudi: 11
The Movement: 9 (Tzipi Livni)
Yesh Atid: 6 (Yair Lapid)
Yahadut HaTorah: 6
Meretz: 3
Am Shalem: 3
Kadima: 2
Haaretz attributes the newly-founded right-wing unity as the reason for the downfall of the centrist and left-wing, perhaps a clear message for the chareidi parties, which seem to be exhibiting difficulty working out their own internal differences. One can only hope the lesson of the Jerusalem mayoral elections and the disunity that led to the election of Nir Barkat will serve as a reminder to the shluchim of the Torah tzibur seeking a spot in the 19th Knesset.
A coalition with Bayit HaYehudi, Shas and Yahadut HaTorah gives the coalition 68 seats in the 120-seat Knesset. Adding Rav Amsellem gives the prime minister a comfortable majority of 71.
A coalition without chareidim might include Bayit HaYehudi, Yesh Atid, Am Shalem, and Kadima for a total of 61. Adding Labor (17) and/or The Movement (9) leaves the government with a comfortable majority of 78 or 70 respectively.
One must remember that coalition chairman Ze’ev Elkin stated last week it is entirely possible the next government coalition will not include chareidim. He pointed out that the chareidim are uncommitted and feel they may go with any party that addresses the needs of the chareidi tzibur, left or right wing. Therefore stated Elkin, Likud will remain uncommitted to the chareidim when it comes to assembling a coalition following the elections.
(YWN – Israel Desk, Jerusalem)
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One Response
1. If all the religious parties (Hareidi thorugh Dati Leumi)- they would be one of the two leading parties, meaning the election would be between them and Likud, and the others Labor would end up as a junior partner in the coalition.
2. If Yahadut HaTorah was the only Ashkenazi hareidi party in the poll, and it subsequently splits, neither might get in.
3. The margin of error means that any party with 2-4 seats might end up with none.
4. Israeli polls are notoriously unreliable since they do a poor job measuring hareidim, Arabs and anyone whose family came from a country where you were in trouble if you gave pollsters the “wrong” answer.