Michigan was supposed to be an easy victory for Mitt Romney, but just over a week away from primary day, it is threatening to turn his campaign into turmoil.
Multiple polls last week showed Rick Santorum edging out Romney for the lead among likely Republican voters in the state, which votes Feb. 28.
Romney has blanketed the state with $1.2 million worth of TV ads—including one where he drives a Chrysler—a number matched by pro-Romney super-PAC Restore Our Future. He is also staging regular campaign events—deploying his wife, Ann, to events when he campaigns out-of-state—where he plays up his emotional connection to the state.
“I was born and raised here. I love this state. It seems right here. The trees are the right height. I like seeing the lakes. I love the lakes,” he said at a campaign event in Michigan Thursday. “I drive a Mustang. I love cars. I love American cars. And long may they rule the world.”
Romney also refers to his father George, who served as a very popular governor in the 1960s, every chance he gets.
Craig Ruff, a longtime Michigan political analyst, pointed out that Michigan is exactly the kind of state where voters should be rallying to Romney, who has positioned himself as the “pro-growth, business leader, job-creator candidate,” and said that their resistance could indicate a significant weakness.
“I can’t think of states other than New Hampshire and Massachusetts that are more ripe for Romney to win than Michigan,” Ruff said. Romney won the state in 2008, when it was contested by fellow GOP candidates Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.) and former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee. Ruff said that jobs are the number one issue in Michigan, and so for Santorum—the social conservative—to be overtaking Romney is “phenomenal.”
Santorum’s string of three straight wins last week, contrasted with Romney’s win in a nonbinding caucus in Maine, has already hurt Romney’s status as the “inevitable nominee.” For Santorum to take his home state might not be a knock-out blow, but it would be a devastating stumble for the campaign.
Ruff called Romney’s win in the state “necessary, but not sufficient for Romney’s nomination.”
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