Mitt Romney increasingly is being seen as a winner in Iowa, even if he fails to win the state’s caucuses on Tuesday.
A second-place finish on Jan. 3 in Iowa could lock up the GOP nomination quickly for the former Massachusetts governor, who appears all but unbeatable in the next contest — New Hampshire’s Jan. 10 primary.
“If he comes in first or second in Iowa and wins New Hampshire, he will be the prohibitive favorite — it’s very difficult to see a scenario where he’s not our nominee,” said Al Cardenas, head of the American Conservative Union, who is officially neutral in the 2012 contest but worked on Romney’s 2008 presidential campaign.
The political winds in Iowa have shifted from candidate to candidate throughout the past year.
Romney fared poorly there in 2008 and has not campaigned aggressively in the state this cycle, which would make a second-place finish less damaging than for some other candidates. It would look even better if he runs a close second to Ron Paul, who most Republicans doubt can emerge as the GOP standard-bearer given his foreign policy views.
“If I’m Romney, Ron Paul winning the caucuses is the second best thing to me winning the caucuses, and that’s a pretty close second,” said Steve Deace, a prominent conservative talk-show host in Iowa.
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6 Responses
And Santorum is in 3rd place in Iowa with 16% in a new CNN poll.
I do not know if anyone has made the connection yet – but rubashkin got convicted in Iowa to a unfair sentence. Ron Paul – pretty much openly anti israel and maybe even an anti semeite.
Hes getting killed everywhere else in the country and has zero chance of being the nominee. Maybe Iowa is just a anti semetic state?
I read an interesting article that said that the importance of the Iowa caucuses is a media invention. Of the delegates necessary for the nomination, zero are picked in the Iowa caucuses. The article is called “The Iowa caucuses: A media game” and it’s on the CNN website.
Romney hasn’t won until he demonstrates support in some solid RED states (South Carolina, for example). Given the way delegates are distributed this time for the Republicans, a lock is unlikely unless someone consistently wins several primaries in a diverse set of states.
This is a pretty poor analysis. Everyone expects Romney to win New Hampshire and everyone knows that he has a solid 25% support in most states. The question is what will happen after New Hampshire where is likely to start losing states (like South Carolina and Florida). This race is far from over and Romney is far from a sure thing (no matter how often someone in the media states it).
2. I have spent lots & lots of time in IA over the last 20 years in my course of work and have hardly experienced ANYTHING of the sort.