Newt Gingrich’s 15-point national lead has collapsed and the GOP presidential candidate is now in a statistical dead heat with Republican rival Mitt Romney, according to a new Gallup tracking poll out Monday.
The former Speaker of the House is now ahead of Romney by only 26 percent to 24 percent, among GOP voters and GOP leaning independent voters. However, Gingrich’s decline has not meant an overwhelming increase in support for the former Massachusetts Governor, and shows that no single candidate has benefited proportionately more from Gingrich’s drop.
Ron Paull is currently polling at 11 percent while Michele Bachmann and Rick Perry are both at 7 percent. Rick Santorum is at 4%, and Jon Huntsman at 2 percent.
According to Gallup, the latest findings are from Dec. 13-18 Gallup Daily tracking, based on 1,177 Republicans and Republican-leaning independents who are registered to vote. The margin of error is plus or minus 3 points.
10 Responses
Oh hum, maybe Obama will be less annoying during his second term.
Or maybe Romney will find a way to embrace the “cool” stuff from the other candidates (as in “vote for me since I’ll be the clever CEO who gets all the other guys ideas actually implemented). Romney running as a “Country club” advocate of bailouts and crony capitalism, no matter how fine his resume and personality, won’t win.
Polls shmolls!! Polls don’t count. Actual human votes do!
A week or 2 ago, Newt looked at a poll that showed him with a big lead and declared that the inexorable implication of that one poll was that he would be the Republican nominee for president. One of YWN’s distinguished commenters (me, i.e., nfgo3) noted that of course Newt concluded that he would be the nominee, as he was too egocentric to realize that the polls showed a high level of volatility in Republican preferences for a nominee. Well, here we are, a week later, and Newt is on the decline. Maybe by next week he will be rising again, but please, don’t jump to any conclusions based on a single poll.
Newt is low on money and low on personnel, which means he is at a disadvantage in ability advertise and ability to get his supporters to the caucuses. As I understand the caucuses, they are a lot like very complicated square dances, and a candidate without seasoned and paid personnel to marshall supporters is at a significant disadvantage. That would be Newt.
And now that Ron Paul is emerging as a contender, focus on his past has turned up a periodic “newsletter” he published containing, among other things, crazy anti-Semitism. He has denied that his “newsletter” reflects his actual views.
I still don’t get why Jon Huntsman is not the man, yes he did work for Obama, but his voting recod CLEARLY shows conservative values and he is a great speaker. Can he still make a run?
Look for the media and the GOP to smear Dr Paul big time now that he came out of Iowa as the winner.
It will be very similar to what they did to Buchanan in 96.
The newsletter controversy has already been used to death and is irrelevant as Obama got elected with Rev Wright in his corner.
Ron Paul is dangerous to the GOP establishment because the GOP has lost its way. It is no longer about small government or fiscal solvency. It’s all nation building and do-gooder interventionisim that helps no one except people with defense contracts.
But as long as Ron Paul doesnt bring a korban to the mizbayach of AIPAC, he will be labeled an anti-semite and the bloc voting lemmings will follow suit.
He has my vote specfically because of his views on Israel and their lobby.
No. 4: To answer your question about Jon Huntsman, consider the opinions of No. 2 above – not just here, but in all his/her posts, and you will understand that Mr. Huntsman has no appeal to Republican primary voters, who evidently prefer a flame-thrower who thinks one easy change of policy – tax cuts or less government (OK, that’s 2) will fix everything, including (possibly) warts. And Mr. Huntsman has committed the biggest Republican sin of all – he worked in the Obama administration as US ambassador to China. How can that kind of competence compare with the CEO of a pizza chain, a Congressional leader who was run out of Congress by his own party under an ethical cloud, or a half-term governor of a small state with a gigantic tax base?
3. I love libs. I wish they all moved to Russia or someplace far away.
You are VERY wrong! If you would have heard what Mr Newt was saying, you would have heard that he wasnt putting too much stock into most of the polls with the high numbers. He also felt he was behind “conservative” Mitt.
Ron Paul may do decent in Iowa but as you get to the more populated states, he isnt doing that well. We know that his foreign policy leaves a lot to be desired.
You just go back worshiping at the altar or your mighty Barack Hussein Obama mmm mmm mmm and all will be good for you.
#6 –
Romney spent a full term as Governor or a large state that is usually solid Democrat, showing an ability to work members of the other party – and before that was a successful businessman.
Gingrich says he’s done Tseuvah (well, that is many times the amount of humility we expect from politicians).
Cain’s major flaw was inexperience at politics. An experiences politicians would have been better at disprove the charges (most of which were patently false, or on closer examination appear to have been racially motivated – remember that until recently a African American male would be lynched for socializing with a white woman and would never be allowed to supervise her).
If the Republican base prefers flame throwers, why would Romney be leading the polls? You are confusing pundits from the “chattering class” with the people who actually vote.
Huntsman has made a point of supporting gay rights, supporting carbon tax/restrictions on the highly debateable theory the human produced carbon causes global warming and hasn’t really object to Obamacare’s most annoying aspects. For someone without an interesting message (such as Cain), he is trying to go from being an unknown to being a contender in too short a time. He’ll probably be around in the future.
@Mark Levin,
Why does his foreign policy leave alot to be desired?
He wants Israel to have total soverignty without Washington interference! Isn’t that what everyone is screaming is wrong with Obama?
You can’t have this whole “Special Relationship” between the U.S. and Israel and not give the U.S. some control in Israel’s internal politics.
Best to cut the purse strings, remain diplomatic and trade allies. Which is exactly what Ron Paul would do.
Unlike the rest of the clowns courting the Jewish vote.
No. 8: Sorry to be a little too cryptic – the half-term governor of a small state with a gigantic tax base was my reference to Sarah Palin. “Small” state referred to the population of Alaska, which I believe is about 600,000, what we New Yorkers call a “neighborhood.” The big resources are the oil drilled in Alaska, which I believe enables the Alaska state government to pay over $1,000 per person to Alaska residents – socialism that Sarah Palin can believe in.
Gingrich – teshuvah? Puhleeese.
And what exactly was Mr. Cain’s political inexperience? That if you have a 14-year extramarital affair, your extra-marital partner will not come out of the woodwork and present plausible information about you? That saying “I didn’t do it” will make everyone (or even anyone) believe you? That referring to a nation in a strategically important part of the world as Beki-beki-beki-stan will enhance your foreign policy expertise? I personally think Mr. Cain was in it for the laughs, and in that sense, he succeeded.
As for Mr. Romney’s lack of flame-throwing: yes, he tends to behave reasonably, but he’s never risen above 25% in the polls, leaving the flame-throwers with 75%.
No. 7: I stand by the facts recited or referenced in my comment no. 3. Newt looked at one poll and determined that he would be the nominee. Use of CAPITAL LETTERS does NOT make you RIGHT. OK?
And why do you think anyone – especially me – worships at an Obama altar? I think it is because you cannot accept the notion that my support of Mr. Obama is the result of (i) careful review of the relevant facts, (ii) a sound analysis of his policies and ideas, and (iii) an equally sound analysis of the alternatives to Mr. Obama, most of whom are not just mediocre, but outright scary.