Newt Gingrich has opened up dominating leads in three of the first four nominating states and is now within striking distance of Mitt Romney in his prime redoubt of New Hampshire, according to a new Time/CNN poll.
With just three weeks before the first ballots are cast, the poll is the most vivid illustration so far of the extraordinary surge of support for the former House speaker, and the continued ebbing interest in nearly all other candidates except for Mr. Romney. Since late October, when the same pollsters last went into the field, Mr. Gingrich has shown double-digit gains in Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina and Florida.
The Gingrich boom dwarfs the surges that other Romney rivals have experienced since the race got under way this spring. Michele Bachmann, Rick Perry and Herman Cain never opened up such large leads in as many early states as Mr. Gingrich now has.
The poll shows Mr. Gingrich leading Mr. Romney among likely Republican caucus-goers in Iowa, 33% to 20%, with Texas Rep. Ron Paul coming in third at 17% and all other contenders in the single digits. The Iowa caucus is set for Jan. 3. In South Carolina, where voters will stream to the polls in the middle of January, Mr. Gingrich leads the former Massachusetts governor 43% to 20%, with all others running far behind.
Mr. Gingrich clocked his most commanding lead in Florida, where Mr. Romney has a huge edge in organization and is counting on a win to buffer potential loses in some of the earlier contests. The Time/CNN poll found Mr. Gingrich leading in the Sunshine State by 48% to 25%, with Mr. Paul coming in a very distant third at 5%.
Scariest for the Romney camp, though, are the numbers out of New Hampshire that show his support slumping to 35%, and Mr. Gingrich’s rising to 26%. No one has come within single digits of Mr. Romney in New Hampshire all year. The Romney campaign has long put little stock in a win in Iowa, but has invested heavily in time, money and prestige in winning in New Hampshire.
Looked at another way, the poll contains a dollop of good news for Mr. Romney. If Mr. Gingrich were to stumble in the final days—an eventuality that Romney aides are all but banking on–Mr. Romney could find himself all alone in the lead in each of the early states. Unless, of course, yet another rival were to come rising out of the ashes.
(Source: WSJ)