Former CIA analyst Bruce Riedel warns that an Israeli assault against Iran would have disastrous results, both for Israel and the United States.
Speaking with Ynet, Riedel is quoted as saying, “An Israeli attack on Iran could ignite a regional conflict from Afghanistan to the Gaza strip,” warned Riedel, adding that “for the Americans and the Obama administration it will be a disaster.”
He feels that Iranian warnings to Israel must be taken seriously, that is to say a strike against Iran’s nuclear facilities would be countered with the firing of ballistic missiles into Israel, as well as the likelihood of Hizbullah joining in from Israel’s northern border.
In such an event states Riedel, there would be considerably more missiles fired into Israel than during the 2006 Second Lebanon War. He also feels that an Israeli assault will be viewed by Tehran as a join Israeli-American strike, and it will result in American involvement, like it or not.
Riedel confirms the legitimacy of reports regarding Iran’s capabilities, warning Tehran can strike out against American bases and interests in the Persian Gulf in addition to Afghanistan where there are currently some 90,000 American troops.
Riedel agrees with the harsh criticism heard during recent days by senior Israeli cabinet ministers against the “media frenzy”, which he views as nothing less than feeding the flames of war.
“Perhaps the spoiled assassination (attempt) against the Saudi ambassador would make the Obama government more sympathetic to an attack on Iran. If that’s the case, they are making a very big mistake,” Riedel noted, adding that “the Obama administration made it clear from day one that they don’t support an Israeli military strike on Iran”, Ynet quotes him as saying.
In Israel, Defense Ministry officials released messages of calm, telling the nation that the reports of recent Israel Air Force training exercises in Europe with other air forces, simulating a strike under combat conditions, was “routine” and planned at least eight months in advance, as was the firing of a ballistic missile from the Palmachim base this week.
Riedel is a Senior Fellow in foreign policy at the Saban Center for Middle East Policy of the Brookings Institution, a Senior Advisor at Albright Stonebridge Group, a former CIA Analyst, a counter-terrorism expert, and an author. He retired in 2006 after 29 years with the Central Intelligence Agency. Riedel served as Special Assistant to the President and Senior Director for Near East Affairs on the National Security Council (1997–2002), Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense for Near East and South Asian Affairs (1995–97), and National Intelligence Officer for Near East and South Asian Affairs at the National Intelligence Council (1993–95). His areas of expertise include counter-terrorism, Arab-Israeli issues, Persian Gulf security and India and Pakistan.
(YWN – Israel Desk, Jerusalem)
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3 Responses
We just had the haftora of sukkos that talks about milchemes gog u’magog. Perhaps its the Sunis & the Sheits who are coming to wage war on yerushalayim?
Ribono Shel Olam, please have rachmonis on klal Yisroel.
Israel should have the following concerns:
1. Even if inclined to help, the United States is having a serious economic crisis and may not be able to
2. Any attack strong enough to cripple Iran will be seen as aggression even in the US (not that many people will object), and a small attack will enrage but not cripple them
3. Many countries that normally wouldn’t support Iran (such as the Arab countries and Pakistan) would feel obligated to support them
4. Israel is hardly unified at this point, so this might be a poor time to start a major war that would require substantial sacrifises from Israeli civilians
It thus might be better for Israel to stick to small covert activities rather than launching a major war.
I have little doubt that an Israeli attack on Iran could trigger a bigger conflict..the question is what is Israel to do for another option? The UN is worthless, dipolmacy and sanctions are not working, Obama may not have the nerve to facedown the Iranians, NATO may not have the resolve to do the same.
The best case scenerio is to get the Russians on board or at least stay away from the fight if there is to be one. Both Syria and Iran have been client states of Russia, who must stay away…will this happen?
The prospect of Jewish blood being shed isn’t very pleasant.