If he correctly concluded that, why did he arm them? Sure, to conclude something after the fact is not that hard.
However, I wouldn’t put the blame on him alone. Most Republicans were upset that he didn’t go in.
There is nothing better for Arab countries than a strong government. If it means a dictator than we should settle for that. America’s stand on Mubarak was a complete failure, as is evident now. The same goes for Q/G/Kaddafi, who was practically harmless, at least as far as the west is concerned, at the time of the uprising. Now, had the US backed the more truly democratic uprising in Iran, is one thing. The lack of judgement shown by our government in international affairs is mind-boggling.
But, sure, he’s learning on the job. By the time Obama leaves office he should be ready to run for public office.