Popa, you agree that it’s probable. I think it’s probable to the point of not reasonable to assume otherwise.
Squeak, let’s analyze.
1) Extra boys born – unreasonable to assume enough to counterbalance.
2) extra boys dying – all the more reason to put more boys in the parsha.
3) extra boys going otd – ditto
4) extra girls becoming frum – ditto
5) extra girls buying into the torah only philosophy – ditto (for Torah only boys)
6) chassidishe girls crossing over – ditto
7) boys who are not torah only material being overlooked – ditto (for Torah only boys)
8) etc. The list doesn’t end there – can’t answer.
Most of the items on your list are alternatives to explain why we see more older female singles than males, but don’t give me any reason to think the problem wouldn’t be alleviated by closing the gap.
Thanks for your response.