Clearly elections in Israel have less to do with ideology than with a party’s ability to form a coalition government. At the very least, a coalition requires a simple majority in Knesset of 61. A component of the election process is shuffling the cards to determine the different coalition possibilities.
According to a Walla News report, two internal polls carried out by the right-wing reveal that if the Tekuma faction of Bayit Yehudi runs independently with MKs who broke away from Shas, they would receive seven seats.
A Rafi Smith poll conducted by Dr. Mina Tzemach shows (prior to the alignment between Yitzchak Herzog and Tzipi Livni) that Likud receives 20 seats, Bayit Yehudi 17 and Shas led by Aryeh Deri 9.
The poll then address a split involving the Tekuma faction headed by Uri Ariel joining forces with disenchanted Shas MKs headed by Eli Yishai. Such a party would receive seven seats according to both polls.
This would result in Bayit Yehudi losing three seats, now at 14 and Shas losing two seats, not at 7. Two additional seats would come from Likud and the Kulanu party headed by Moshe Kahlon.
One should be aware that talks to sign an alignment to keep the Tekuma faction in Bayit Yehudi seem to be stalled.
(YWN – Israel Desk, Jerusalem)
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4 Responses
SHAS rebels are the ones remaining in the original SHAS party.
How many are they taking from Shas (Deri) and from Bayit Yehudi (Bennett), as opposed to taking from Kahlon (whose economic/social policies are similar to the traditional Shas views on such matters).
Will this new party favor conscription (i.e. throwing yeshiva students in prison if they refuse to join the IDF, and close down their yeshivos)? If they favor conscription, it is the major switch from the policies of Shas (and R. Ovadiah Yosef). If they oppose conscription, how does that mesh will favoring a strongly pro-war foreign policy (the “chickenhawk” problem).
Given the typical margin or error of such polls (several percent, i.e. several seats), it is possible that both parties will fall below the threshold if it turns out the polling era was biased in favor of the parties sponsoring the poll.
Go for it Yishai! It’s hard to call him a shas “rebel” when Maran z”tl loved for Yishai very much. He didn’t say וכל ביתי נאמן הוא about deri….
Shavua Tov – Gutta Voch
If Shas’s motto is,”all for one and one for all,” then there’s a problem here. We are all supposed to be for HaShem’s Torah at least that’s what we declared when we stated Na’aseh V’Nishma so, why is it so difficult for Shas to realize that HaShem (ONE) has only wanted the best for Klal Yisrael (ALL). Why is there a need for splinter groups when there is power in oneness. Aryeh Deri should be told straight out by the ‘Moetzet Chachmei HaTorah of Shas”, Rabbi Shimon Baadani, Rabbi Shalom Cohen, Rabbi Moshe Maya, Rabbi David Yosef that his services in the past are very appreciated but due to dire need to keep the Shas party together we want you to step down for the time being. It would be plainly clear to Deri that he had caused disfavor to them and to the party. I can’t and won’t even phathom what Chacham Ovadia, ztk”l would do in this situation. It isn’t as though it’s like Avraham Avinu being asked to sacrifice Yitzchok Avinu. This is all politics and there aren’t any clean cut rules in politics. If wants to point fingers, then they cannot point them at Yishai as he has always leaned to the right and Deri, is not dependable as he has compromised Shas in all too many instances to mention here.
I’m very disappointed in Eli Yishai in that he hasn’t given proper kavod to HaRav HaGaon Rav Meir Mazuz, shlita who he ran to early mornings to pray with him and also to confer with him on Shas matters. Rav Mazuz gave Yishai specific instructions on how to deal with Deri (see previous postings by YW staff)by bringing in Rav Haim Amselem to Shas as he knew what kind of sly character Deri was / is. Rav Mazuz knew early on that Deri was all for himself and had no interest in bettering Shas’s position in the government. Yishai DIDN’T listen to Daas Torah and he’s found himself on the stoop. If you don’t go to Daas Torah, that isn’t being clever but, once you’ve gone and received a p’sak you must follow through with it. Yishai should be sure to have a written contract with Uri Ariel for if Uri becomes disenchanted with this partnership that he can’t just go on the attack or walk out. There should also be an understanding that Bayit Yehudi has to be steadfast in keeping with strict Torah Halachic standards as to how Israel is to be run.